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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Japanese Yen(CME) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 15 18 20 22 26 27 27 27 27 27 27
Closed Higher 7 6 7 5 13 13 13 11 13 11 13
Exceeded High 6 4 5 5 9 11 9 11 9 7 10
Scenario Percentage 86% 67% 71% 100% 69% 85% 69% 100% 69% 64% 77%
Avg Max Increase 4.49% 6.95% 5.16% 5.57% 7.96% 4.42% 5.04% 5.18% 4.42% 3.67% 2.77%
Max Increase 13.76% 8.66% 13.24% 9.90% 19.60% 10.41% 10.48% 15.22% 10.40% 7.20% 8.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase 24 27 20 16 18 18 15 16 16 13 9
Avg Max Decline -1.47% -0.92% -1.39% -0.29% -0.55% -0.99% -0.84% -1.07% -1.06% -1.18% -0.39%
Max Decline -6.14% -1.36% -2.73% -0.50% -1.94% -3.16% -3.91% -4.06% -2.72% -3.38% -2.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 5 14 6 7 6 9 7 9 6 3
2003 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes           Yes
Action     Yes   Yes           Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 15 18 20 22 26 27 27 27 27 27 27
Closed Lower 8 12 13 17 13 14 14 16 14 16 14
Penetrated Low 8 11 13 15 10 12 11 14 12 13 9
Scenario Percentage 100% 92% 100% 88% 77% 86% 79% 88% 86% 81% 64%
Avg Max Decline 3.98% 4.94% 3.70% 3.91% 5.65% 3.89% 4.83% 4.73% 4.64% 2.83% 5.54%
Max Decline 8.63% 8.84% 8.78% 9.65% 10.51% 8.89% 13.18% 8.68% 15.17% 14.67% 23.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline 25 16 15 21 16 16 16 18 14 8 9
Avg Max Increase -1.53% -0.59% -0.24% -1.63% -0.45% -0.87% -0.29% -0.90% -0.88% -1.22% -0.67%
Max Increase -2.52% -2.95% -1.75% -4.05% -2.73% -3.00% -1.19% -2.12% -2.64% -3.88% -2.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase 14 11 5 11 4 10 4 8 6 6 4
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action Yes Yes   Yes   No No Yes Yes Yes  
High 82.87 84.60 85.22 85.62 85.99 86.35 85.06 86.75 85.59 85.90 86.15
Low 81.01 82.30 80.94 83.78 83.02 82.71 83.13 83.85 83.35 83.00 82.96
Close/Last 82.60 82.51 85.00 84.05 85.28 85.06 84.49 84.12 83.69 83.04 85.80