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ScenarioSM Study for November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2014 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | |
Closed Higher | 11 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 13 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 9 | |
Scenario Percentage | 82% | 100% | 90% | 100% | 94% | 93% | 70% | 100% | 94% | 79% | 69% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.04% | 10.83% | 12.42% | 11.41% | 9.83% | 10.01% | 11.49% | 11.79% | 16.26% | 17.49% | 6.09% | |
Max Increase | 16.96% | 19.75% | 24.71% | 25.20% | 22.91% | 34.75% | 16.93% | 20.97% | 95.55% | 57.80% | 11.04% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 10 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.58% | -1.59% | -2.02% | -1.45% | -2.85% | -1.71% | -1.84% | -2.72% | -1.66% | -2.47% | -3.04% | |
Max Decline | -7.50% | -6.67% | -10.06% | -3.69% | -9.22% | -5.78% | -5.58% | -14.81% | -10.74% | -14.30% | -13.68% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | |
2013 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.