MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		13	23	24	24	27	27	28	28	29	30	30
Closed Higher		5	14	17	15	12	15	17	16	17	15	15
Exceeded High		5	13	16	13	11	13	16	12	14	10	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	93%	94%	87%	92%	87%	94%	75%	82%	67%	73%
Avg Max Increase		6.08%	10.11%	9.79%	10.16%	8.37%	9.92%	9.91%	12.21%	9.32%	9.64%	7.98%
Max Increase		12.84%	21.82%	20.51%	33.83%	17.60%	22.05%	24.00%	31.02%	22.44%	15.37%	12.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	20	16	11	16	18	19	16	12	20	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.95%	-1.81%	-2.58%	-1.39%	-1.80%	-2.19%	-1.64%	-2.20%	-2.55%	-1.80%	-1.52%
Max Decline		-8.94%	-12.94%	-8.86%	-5.89%	-6.13%	-13.67%	-9.19%	-11.24%	-10.89%	-4.71%	-4.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	9	6	8	9	7	8	5	8	4
2018 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		13	23	24	24	27	27	28	28	29	30	30
Closed Lower		8	9	7	8	15	12	10	12	12	15	15
Penetrated Low		4	3	4	4	8	8	9	9	10	14	12
Scenario Percentage		50%	33%	57%	50%	53%	67%	90%	75%	83%	93%	80%
Avg Max Decline		6.75%	6.49%	5.00%	10.65%	9.68%	9.93%	10.51%	13.68%	16.04%	17.99%	14.21%
Max Decline		14.86%	9.89%	11.34%	21.89%	19.70%	31.89%	27.96%	47.35%	51.70%	47.31%	34.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	12	4	20	19	17	19	19	15	17	17
Avg Max Increase		-2.12%	-0.45%	-1.17%	-3.18%	-0.95%	-1.82%	-3.11%	-3.28%	-2.07%	-2.27%	-2.21%
Max Increase		-5.42%	-2.07%	-5.87%	-6.31%	-2.46%	-9.35%	-14.85%	-13.51%	-10.14%	-4.75%	-8.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	13	4	12	4	10	15	15	5	3	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No
High	58.99	58.84	57.61	56.55	57.33	55.32	52.54	53.40	53.46	58.13	60.89	64.41
Low	56.03	55.92	55.91	51.35	52.14	48.01	46.15	47.59	49.89	52.21	54.66	59.75
Close/Last	58.61	56.43	56.72	54.15	53.06	51.89	50.07	53.23	53.01	56.43	60.66	62.63