MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Unleaded Gas(NYM) as of Nov 30, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	9	12	13	16	17	18	19	19	19	19	19
Closed Higher	6	6	6	10	11	11	9	8	11	13	9
Exceeded High	5	3	6	8	10	10	6	6	11	8
Scenario Percentage	83%	50%	100%	80%	91%	91%	67%	75%	100%	62%	0%
Avg Max Increase	4.54%	6.95%	8.45%	13.75%	9.85%	5.06%	11.77%	14.74%	12.88%	10.67%
Max Increase	7.15%	11.29%	11.40%	57.53%	31.03%	10.82%	18.41%	23.07%	35.85%	21.12%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	23	23	22	13	12	23	16	16	13
Avg Max Decline	-2.06%	-2.38%	-2.13%	-0.60%	-1.57%	-2.48%	-2.01%	-3.51%	-2.45%	-1.36%
Max Decline	-7.25%	-5.54%	-7.23%	-2.42%	-10.27%	-10.51%	-5.29%	-12.03%	-9.89%	-3.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	10	16	10	7	4	12	5	8	2
2005 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	9	12	13	16	17	18	19	19	19	19	19
Closed Lower	3	6	7	6	6	7	10	11	8	6	10
Penetrated Low	2	4	5	3	5	4	8	8	4	3	10
Scenario Percentage	67%	67%	71%	50%	83%	57%	80%	73%	50%	50%	100%
Avg Max Decline	4.14%	7.07%	7.50%	7.96%	5.50%	9.37%	12.94%	12.16%	21.02%	17.69%	100.00%
Max Decline	4.66%	9.92%	14.59%	12.62%	15.40%	21.28%	21.83%	27.49%	43.15%	29.14%	100.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	10	15	16	15	14	16	17	18	24	1
Avg Max Increase	-4.05%	-0.15%	-0.53%	-5.35%	-3.78%	-0.99%	-2.39%	-3.27%	-6.45%	0.44%	100.00%
Max Increase	-6.37%	-1.17%	-4.13%	-11.97%	-11.93%	-3.30%	-6.63%	-10.96%	-17.88%	-0.94%	100.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	2	3	26	20	3	3	16	13	2	1
2005 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes
Action					No			Not Yet
High	97.59	107.82	109.69	118.29	127.00	132.10	144.79	137.60
Low	88.64	98.86	100.22	105.00	113.00	115.19	132.17	124.40
Close/Last	97.59	104.03	104.21	118.29	114.19	131.06	135.85	131.00