MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Unleaded Gas(NYM) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	3	8	10	11	14	17	17	18	18	18	18
Closed Higher	1	5	7	7	7	6	11	11	12	9	6
Exceeded High	1	4	7	6	5	6	9	10	12	6	4
Scenario Percentage	100%	80%	100%	86%	71%	100%	82%	91%	100%	67%	67%
Avg Max Increase	3.57%	9.54%	7.33%	4.42%	6.54%	8.66%	15.45%	10.82%	5.40%	9.11%	9.98%
Max Increase	3.57%	18.17%	10.96%	6.69%	10.35%	14.00%	64.52%	32.03%	12.00%	17.79%	14.22%
Avg Days To Max Increase	4	7	16	17	26	20	21	15	11	16	23
Avg Max Decline	-3.16%	1.12%	-3.84%	-2.85%	-2.49%	-2.74%	-1.43%	-1.71%	-3.18%	-1.89%	-3.12%
Max Decline	-3.16%	-0.72%	-8.85%	-8.17%	-5.72%	-8.34%	-3.24%	-5.68%	-13.00%	-4.05%	-5.15%
Avg Days to Max Decline	17	10	8	10	10	13	11	7	4	9	6
2004 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	3	8	10	11	14	17	17	18	18	18	18
Closed Lower	2	3	2	4	7	11	6	7	6	9	12
Penetrated Low	1	1	1	2	5	7	4	5	4	7	9
Scenario Percentage	50%	33%	50%	50%	71%	64%	67%	71%	67%	78%	75%
Avg Max Decline	6.92%	8.18%	3.54%	5.12%	8.45%	6.63%	7.98%	6.86%	10.89%	16.19%	11.12%
Max Decline	6.92%	8.18%	3.54%	6.19%	11.97%	15.29%	15.17%	16.10%	24.20%	26.59%	19.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	17	19	13	14	18	21	15	15	18	16
Avg Max Increase	-2.79%	-0.16%	-1.29%	-4.60%	-0.33%	-1.66%	-4.23%	-1.83%	-1.54%	-2.87%	-1.71%
Max Increase	-2.79%	-0.16%	-1.29%	-6.58%	-1.24%	-8.10%	-12.80%	-3.73%	-4.24%	-7.98%	-12.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase	1	2	29	19	4	3	20	14	4	3	5
2004 Contract Condition									Yes
Action									No
High					73.60	76.50	79.40	83.30	81.10	86.40	91.70
Low					71.55	72.55	75.53	80.00	72.30	76.40	77.40
Close/Last					73.40	75.92	78.52	82.17	77.62	78.98	83.44