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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Heating Oil(NYM) as of Dec 25, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years 18 20 21 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Closed Higher 9 10 8 15 16 13 9 15 16 17 10
Exceeded High 9 7 7 14 11 9 9 12 16 15 7
Scenario Percentage 100% 70% 88% 93% 69% 69% 100% 80% 100% 88% 70%
Avg Max Increase 6.15% 9.23% 10.46% 8.14% 7.25% 6.28% 10.12% 15.02% 10.91% 6.68% 6.15%
Max Increase 17.69% 21.19% 22.39% 15.12% 14.78% 14.05% 17.75% 74.87% 38.50% 17.73% 12.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase 13 13 12 18 21 15 20 18 15 12 16
Avg Max Decline -1.30% -1.47% -0.38% -1.52% -2.31% -1.59% -2.62% -1.69% -3.11% -3.10% -1.35%
Max Decline -3.74% -3.78% -1.46% -7.19% -11.13% -5.77% -7.42% -6.60% -14.50% -13.85% -2.99%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 8 6 5 11 7 16 7 7 4 4
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years 18 20 21 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Closed Lower 9 10 13 8 9 12 16 10 9 8 15
Penetrated Low 8 8 9 5 6 10 13 5 7 7 11
Scenario Percentage 89% 80% 69% 63% 67% 83% 81% 50% 78% 88% 73%
Avg Max Decline 7.92% 10.32% 5.66% 5.41% 5.43% 7.46% 7.79% 6.88% 6.17% 8.72% 15.97%
Max Decline 22.42% 34.29% 19.09% 6.99% 7.80% 13.88% 19.13% 15.25% 15.77% 26.63% 57.86%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 16 8 12 17 16 18 17 12 15 19
Avg Max Increase -4.50% -1.00% -1.63% -2.69% -4.14% -0.97% -1.82% -5.61% -2.76% -5.48% -3.49%
Max Increase -7.71% -3.91% -10.40% -5.43% -6.95% -6.42% -7.66% -19.25% -5.86% -20.44% -12.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase 12 4 6 7 21 2 8 24 16 11 6
2003 Contract Condition       Yes Yes         Yes  
Action       Yes No         Not Yet  
High 72.70 78.60 83.54 86.10 75.40 77.40 80.80 83.50 87.25 83.90 90.80
Low 67.77 71.00 77.37 69.70 69.46 69.80 75.45 78.00 80.90 72.10 77.50
Close/Last 71.86 78.41 82.21 74.68 70.71 76.62 80.34 81.56 84.33 79.50 80.04