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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Heating Oil(NYM) as of Nov 14, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years 16 18 19 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Closed Higher 8 8 6 14 15 12 7 13 14 16 9
Exceeded High 8 5 5 13 11 8 7 10 14 14 7
Scenario Percentage 100% 63% 83% 93% 73% 67% 100% 77% 100% 88% 78%
Avg Max Increase 4.89% 6.72% 9.21% 8.25% 7.25% 5.94% 10.21% 15.64% 11.41% 6.97% 7.36%
Max Increase 17.69% 14.90% 14.15% 15.12% 14.78% 14.05% 17.75% 74.87% 38.50% 17.73% 18.25%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 11 14 19 21 16 20 19 16 12 17
Avg Max Decline -1.32% -1.35% -0.63% -1.72% -2.31% -1.60% -2.51% -1.77% -2.20% -3.38% -1.35%
Max Decline -3.74% -3.78% -1.46% -7.19% -11.13% -5.77% -7.42% -6.60% -6.67% -13.85% -2.99%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 9 8 5 11 6 13 9 7 4 4
2002 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years 16 18 19 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
Closed Lower 8 10 13 7 8 11 16 10 9 7 14
Penetrated Low 7 8 9 4 6 9 13 5 7 7 10
Scenario Percentage 88% 80% 69% 57% 75% 82% 81% 50% 78% 100% 71%
Avg Max Decline 8.67% 10.32% 5.66% 5.02% 5.43% 7.99% 7.79% 6.88% 6.17% 8.72% 16.42%
Max Decline 22.42% 34.29% 19.09% 6.87% 7.80% 13.88% 19.13% 15.25% 15.77% 26.63% 57.86%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 16 8 7 17 17 18 17 12 15 19
Avg Max Increase -4.19% -1.00% -1.63% -3.13% -4.14% -1.01% -1.82% -5.61% -2.76% -5.48% -3.80%
Max Increase -7.71% -3.91% -10.40% -5.43% -6.95% -6.42% -7.66% -19.25% -5.86% -20.44% -12.34%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 4 6 3 21 2 8 24 16 11 7
2002 Contract Condition Yes         Yes         Yes
Action Yes         Yes         Yes
High 61.93 62.45 61.85 71.15 75.70 74.81 70.95 73.23 78.45 82.85 83.40
Low 57.25 57.00 57.40 62.50 64.73 66.50 66.00 68.50 68.50 74.40 72.20
Close/Last 58.53 58.71 61.85 70.93 72.19 67.81 70.68 70.87 77.80 81.37 74.90