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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for November Heating Oil(NYM) as of Dec 05, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 13 17 19 20 23 24 25 25 25 25 25
Closed Higher 6 9 9 9 16 17 13 9 15 16 17
Exceeded High 4 9 6 8 15 13 9 9 12 16 13
Scenario Percentage 67% 100% 67% 89% 94% 76% 69% 100% 80% 100% 76%
Avg Max Increase 9.35% 6.30% 10.16% 10.73% 11.29% 10.77% 6.38% 10.42% 15.62% 11.01% 4.26%
Max Increase 15.12% 17.61% 21.64% 20.85% 51.12% 53.09% 15.19% 18.73% 76.22% 39.38% 8.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase 12 12 10 13 20 19 14 18 18 14 13
Avg Max Decline -0.81% -1.02% -0.92% -0.99% -2.17% -2.23% -1.60% -2.79% -1.69% -3.05% -2.34%
Max Decline -2.17% -3.79% -3.92% -5.33% -8.88% -11.99% -5.77% -8.22% -7.72% -14.88% -13.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 5 5 6 6 10 10 15 7 7 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years 13 17 19 20 23 24 25 25 25 25 25
Closed Lower 7 8 10 11 7 7 12 16 10 9 8
Penetrated Low 5 7 8 8 6 5 10 13 5 6 8
Scenario Percentage 71% 88% 80% 73% 86% 71% 83% 81% 50% 67% 100%
Avg Max Decline 6.41% 11.31% 10.44% 4.92% 5.85% 5.25% 7.64% 8.05% 7.27% 6.92% 17.45%
Max Decline 9.18% 32.60% 34.45% 18.95% 7.76% 8.08% 14.27% 19.18% 15.48% 16.10% 51.44%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 20 16 8 13 14 15 18 16 11 13
Avg Max Increase -2.37% -3.92% -1.11% -1.21% -2.74% -4.74% -0.96% -1.91% -5.38% -2.69% -6.18%
Max Increase -5.51% -6.87% -3.19% -5.12% -5.55% -7.55% -6.77% -7.93% -19.87% -6.87% -19.92%
Avg Days to Max Increase 10 9 5 6 11 21 2 9 17 17 8
2003 Contract Condition         Yes Yes         Yes
Action         Yes No         Yes
High 68.50 72.15 78.26 83.69 85.95 74.80 76.90 80.50 83.05 87.00 83.00
Low 64.50 67.37 71.00 77.22 69.25 68.86 69.50 75.00 77.50 80.00 71.10
Close/Last 67.98 71.56 78.26 82.31 74.38 70.11 76.22 79.94 81.11 83.53 78.75