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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Heating Oil(NYM) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 14 17 19 21 21 22 22 24 24 24 24
Closed Higher 5 7 9 9 8 14 16 12 9 15 15
Exceeded High 3 5 9 6 7 13 12 9 9 11 13
Scenario Percentage 60% 71% 100% 67% 88% 93% 75% 75% 100% 73% 87%
Avg Max Increase 6.07% 10.18% 6.55% 10.39% 10.74% 8.80% 7.45% 6.66% 10.96% 17.80% 9.91%
Max Increase 8.12% 15.59% 17.88% 21.99% 21.62% 16.06% 16.75% 16.15% 20.46% 79.92% 40.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase 29 12 12 10 11 19 18 16 19 16 21
Avg Max Decline -1.49% -1.04% -1.09% -1.05% -0.24% -2.69% -2.76% -2.31% -3.18% -0.93% -1.57%
Max Decline -2.90% -2.23% -3.85% -4.22% -1.84% -9.29% -13.06% -6.25% -9.27% -4.13% -7.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 9 5 5 6 6 10 10 15 3 4
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes No
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 14 17 19 21 21 22 22 24 24 24 24
Closed Lower 9 10 10 12 13 8 6 11 15 9 9
Penetrated Low 8 8 8 10 10 6 4 9 12 6 5
Scenario Percentage 89% 80% 80% 83% 77% 75% 67% 82% 80% 67% 56%
Avg Max Decline 8.64% 9.04% 12.05% 11.70% 5.89% 6.13% 6.68% 7.99% 7.27% 5.96% 6.15%
Max Decline 14.67% 23.72% 34.01% 34.78% 19.48% 8.79% 8.47% 15.09% 19.21% 16.02% 10.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline 18 19 19 15 9 14 13 14 20 16 20
Avg Max Increase -1.59% -1.59% -3.52% -0.30% -1.99% -2.87% -4.41% -1.14% -2.48% -5.31% -3.25%
Max Increase -3.58% -5.77% -7.23% -3.23% -9.26% -5.66% -7.19% -7.37% -8.21% -21.03% -9.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase 6 8 10 2 7 11 18 2 10 14 14
2003 Contract Condition Yes         Yes Yes        
Action Yes         Yes No        
High 70.05 68.00 72.10 78.06 83.84 86.00 74.60 76.40 80.40 82.90 86.80
Low 65.86 63.95 66.92 70.50 77.02 68.75 68.26 69.00 74.40 76.70 79.00
Close/Last 67.20 67.53 71.21 78.06 82.41 74.13 69.51 75.82 79.54 80.46 82.63