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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Heating Oil(NYM) as of Sep 18, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 15 18 19 20 21 22 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Higher 9 8 7 9 9 9 15 16 13 10 13
Exceeded High 7 5 5 9 6 8 14 13 8 10 11
Scenario Percentage 78% 63% 71% 100% 67% 89% 93% 81% 62% 100% 85%
Avg Max Increase 4.42% 10.57% 10.48% 6.73% 10.78% 10.05% 7.95% 7.30% 7.73% 10.05% 12.37%
Max Increase 10.23% 18.97% 16.14% 18.59% 23.00% 22.69% 15.62% 17.13% 16.57% 20.17% 65.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 29 13 13 10 13 18 18 18 15 14
Avg Max Decline -1.22% -2.40% -0.97% -1.34% -1.27% -0.36% -2.22% -2.86% -2.85% -3.19% -0.37%
Max Decline -7.03% -4.10% -2.27% -3.91% -4.56% -2.22% -9.53% -13.97% -6.75% -9.57% -3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline 4 15 9 5 6 8 8 11 11 14 3
2003 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 15 18 19 20 21 22 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Lower 6 10 12 11 12 13 9 8 11 14 11
Penetrated Low 6 9 10 9 10 10 7 6 9 12 7
Scenario Percentage 100% 90% 83% 82% 83% 77% 78% 75% 82% 86% 64%
Avg Max Decline 7.25% 10.28% 11.29% 13.31% 11.92% 6.27% 6.91% 6.61% 8.30% 7.46% 13.69%
Max Decline 17.11% 21.22% 24.96% 35.34% 35.33% 20.48% 9.94% 9.07% 15.83% 19.86% 42.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline 19 17 20 21 15 10 18 14 13 16 13
Avg Max Increase -2.04% -1.12% -1.26% -2.94% -0.84% -1.94% -2.46% -4.09% -1.19% -2.46% -6.93%
Max Increase -4.82% -3.77% -6.03% -7.78% -5.36% -9.09% -5.78% -7.00% -7.54% -8.73% -32.45%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 6 8 9 3 7 10 19 2 9 10
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes         Yes Yes      
Action Yes Yes         Yes No      
High 70.03 69.60 67.60 73.00 77.91 84.09 86.20 74.00 76.25 80.30 82.60
Low 67.24 65.36 63.60 66.47 70.10 76.70 68.25 67.61 68.20 73.70 75.90
Close/Last 67.62 66.70 67.08 70.91 77.91 82.61 73.88 68.86 75.42 79.09 79.86