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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Heating Oil(NYM) as of May 27, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 15 17 22 22 23 24 24 24 25 25 25
Closed Higher 11 7 9 13 15 15 13 10 13 11 10
Exceeded High 9 5 9 11 14 10 10 8 12 8 10
Scenario Percentage 82% 71% 100% 85% 93% 67% 77% 80% 92% 73% 100%
Avg Max Increase 5.08% 5.99% 9.24% 11.33% 9.26% 6.24% 10.88% 16.38% 10.74% 13.51% 10.86%
Max Increase 8.59% 9.82% 17.54% 59.17% 31.26% 18.91% 23.56% 28.14% 37.44% 28.18% 27.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 22 21 16 16 14 21 16 17 13 17
Avg Max Decline -1.85% -1.17% -3.35% -0.86% -1.85% -1.81% -2.78% -1.83% -3.30% -2.59% -2.47%
Max Decline -6.43% -4.54% -14.20% -3.56% -8.59% -8.11% -8.29% -8.06% -10.05% -5.27% -9.12%
Avg Days to Max Decline 9 9 18 7 9 7 14 4 14 7 4
2004 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 15 17 22 22 23 24 24 24 25 25 25
Closed Lower 4 10 13 9 8 9 11 14 12 14 15
Penetrated Low 2 8 10 4 4 8 10 14 11 11 12
Scenario Percentage 50% 80% 77% 44% 50% 89% 91% 100% 92% 79% 80%
Avg Max Decline 3.68% 7.58% 4.12% 5.48% 5.23% 6.43% 12.87% 12.47% 14.20% 13.03% 10.89%
Max Decline 5.22% 13.97% 11.24% 11.82% 15.22% 21.05% 22.23% 30.25% 36.13% 22.36% 46.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline 20 12 11 17 12 16 16 22 22 14 11
Avg Max Increase -4.26% -1.58% -1.78% -4.66% -4.93% -4.89% -1.52% -2.99% -4.34% -3.10% -2.64%
Max Increase -5.93% -8.90% -7.45% -12.41% -13.21% -15.93% -3.38% -10.76% -12.52% -11.25% -12.15%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 3 6 20 18 17 4 14 15 7 8
2004 Contract Condition Yes         Yes          
Action No         No          
High 70.75 72.00 74.00 76.65 79.10 76.60 82.80 84.50 89.22 94.10 94.70
Low 66.06 66.60 70.20 72.57 75.20 70.73 74.50 74.40 78.40 85.60 83.10
Close/Last 67.11 71.22 73.64 75.41 77.38 75.15 76.24 79.32 85.86 86.51 94.19