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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Heating Oil(NYM) as of May 07, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years 14 17 18 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Closed Higher 10 12 8 10 14 16 16 14 11 14 8
Exceeded High 10 9 6 10 12 15 13 12 9 12 5
Scenario Percentage 100% 75% 75% 100% 86% 94% 81% 86% 82% 86% 63%
Avg Max Increase 7.85% 6.11% 5.77% 8.80% 11.43% 9.93% 7.20% 11.58% 17.16% 12.81% 12.01%
Max Increase 13.04% 9.86% 10.66% 15.47% 62.05% 33.12% 23.00% 25.47% 34.25% 41.13% 26.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 19 24 19 17 18 12 19 14 16 12
Avg Max Decline -2.46% -2.04% -1.88% -3.45% -0.99% -2.21% -2.31% -2.49% -1.74% -3.25% -0.65%
Max Decline -8.64% -7.69% -5.71% -17.69% -3.99% -10.58% -10.07% -8.35% -8.11% -13.01% -2.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 9 11 15 8 9 7 12 4 9 3
2004 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes No
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years 14 17 18 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Closed Lower 4 5 10 14 10 9 9 11 14 11 17
Penetrated Low 2 3 8 11 5 6 6 10 14 9 12
Scenario Percentage 50% 60% 80% 79% 50% 67% 67% 91% 100% 82% 71%
Avg Max Decline 2.47% 4.46% 8.46% 4.97% 5.46% 5.29% 8.29% 13.73% 11.47% 16.52% 13.75%
Max Decline 2.98% 5.86% 17.48% 12.04% 12.48% 14.55% 22.85% 21.49% 29.13% 37.84% 50.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline 12 18 14 18 16 13 17 16 21 17 15
Avg Max Increase -2.00% -3.48% -1.47% -1.70% -3.98% -4.40% -2.49% -1.90% -3.62% -3.42% -4.03%
Max Increase -2.05% -5.79% -8.44% -6.90% -12.77% -14.75% -6.12% -4.72% -12.74% -14.44% -20.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase 15 13 3 10 16 22 12 4 15 15 8
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes         Yes        
Action No No         No        
High 80.09 73.10 74.50 77.00 79.55 82.50 80.30 86.50 88.35 94.80 101.25
Low 67.60 67.96 68.60 72.90 75.27 78.50 72.10 76.90 77.10 81.30 90.60
Close/Last 72.33 69.01 73.72 76.64 78.21 80.63 77.70 78.89 82.57 90.06 91.56