MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Heating Oil(NYM) as of Mar 19, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years 13 16 17 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Higher 10 12 7 9 13 15 16 13 10 13 7
Exceeded High 10 9 5 9 11 14 13 11 8 11 5
Scenario Percentage 100% 75% 71% 100% 85% 93% 81% 85% 80% 85% 71%
Avg Max Increase 7.85% 6.11% 5.34% 8.93% 11.97% 10.12% 7.20% 10.80% 16.48% 13.17% 12.01%
Max Increase 13.04% 9.86% 10.66% 15.47% 62.05% 33.12% 23.00% 25.47% 34.25% 41.13% 26.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 19 23 19 17 18 12 19 13 15 12
Avg Max Decline -2.46% -2.04% -2.03% -3.64% -1.11% -1.61% -2.31% -2.51% -1.77% -3.66% -0.65%
Max Decline -8.64% -7.69% -5.71% -17.69% -3.99% -4.76% -10.07% -8.35% -8.11% -13.01% -2.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 9 10 15 8 8 7 12 4 8 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years 13 16 17 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Lower 3 4 10 14 10 9 8 11 14 11 17
Penetrated Low 2 3 8 11 5 6 6 10 14 9 12
Scenario Percentage 67% 75% 80% 79% 50% 67% 75% 91% 100% 82% 71%
Avg Max Decline 2.47% 4.46% 8.46% 4.97% 5.46% 5.29% 8.29% 13.73% 11.47% 16.52% 13.75%
Max Decline 2.98% 5.86% 17.48% 12.04% 12.48% 14.55% 22.85% 21.49% 29.13% 37.84% 50.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline 12 18 14 18 16 13 17 16 21 17 15
Avg Max Increase -2.00% -3.48% -1.47% -1.70% -3.98% -4.40% -2.49% -1.90% -3.62% -3.42% -4.35%
Max Increase -2.05% -5.79% -8.44% -6.90% -12.77% -14.75% -6.12% -4.72% -12.74% -14.44% -24.78%
Avg Days to Max Increase 15 13 3 10 16 22 12 4 15 15 8
2003 Contract Condition     Yes         Yes      
Action     No         Yes      
High 69.15 71.80 72.61 70.00 71.65 75.60 78.05 78.75 72.80 87.90 94.50
Low 62.19 62.93 65.70 65.80 67.90 67.50 72.47 70.00 65.50 71.40 79.50
Close/Last 68.88 70.04 66.76 69.23 69.52 75.20 77.02 72.00 72.28 83.61 93.26