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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Heating Oil(NYM) as of Jan 10, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 12 14 18 20 23 24 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Higher 6 6 13 14 11 8 14 15 17 9 9
Exceeded High 5 5 12 11 7 8 11 15 14 8 6
Scenario Percentage 83% 83% 92% 79% 64% 100% 79% 100% 82% 89% 67%
Avg Max Increase 9.85% 10.16% 7.96% 10.87% 6.36% 9.66% 14.79% 10.54% 6.93% 11.49% 24.82%
Max Increase 20.23% 19.73% 14.59% 52.14% 13.71% 17.70% 71.34% 38.14% 17.09% 26.77% 77.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase 11 12 22 18 18 21 19 17 15 18 26
Avg Max Decline -0.71% -0.24% -2.77% -2.09% -1.54% -2.36% -1.71% -2.10% -3.51% -1.69% -2.31%
Max Decline -3.52% -1.26% -8.71% -10.66% -5.26% -6.36% -5.53% -6.07% -13.28% -3.38% -7.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 8 7 10 6 15 7 9 11 5 5
2003 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 12 14 18 20 23 24 24 24 24 24 24
Closed Lower 6 8 5 6 12 16 10 9 7 15 15
Penetrated Low 5 6 4 5 10 13 5 5 7 13 14
Scenario Percentage 83% 75% 80% 83% 83% 81% 50% 56% 100% 87% 93%
Avg Max Decline 7.68% 5.63% 4.55% 6.08% 7.30% 7.39% 6.28% 7.28% 8.51% 13.14% 9.51%
Max Decline 12.61% 18.65% 6.93% 7.89% 13.51% 18.97% 14.13% 15.49% 25.76% 23.68% 23.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline 13 10 7 17 16 17 16 12 19 13 16
Avg Max Increase -0.47% -1.45% -3.10% -3.34% -0.98% -1.73% -5.18% -2.37% -4.87% -2.29% -1.27%
Max Increase -1.54% -3.71% -5.32% -6.82% -6.39% -7.53% -19.07% -5.36% -16.69% -4.70% -4.89%
Avg Days to Max Increase 2 7 10 19 2 7 16 24 11 5 3
2003 Contract Condition         Yes         Yes  
Action         Yes         Yes  
High 63.00 62.35 71.25 74.65 75.10 71.40 73.60 78.70 82.90 83.45 76.80
Low 57.56 58.00 63.00 64.98 67.00 66.60 69.40 69.25 74.92 72.90 66.80
Close/Last 59.26 62.35 71.18 72.39 68.16 70.98 71.32 78.10 81.52 75.15 75.98