|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 06, 2009 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
25 |
26 |
29 |
24 |
20 |
22 |
30 |
22 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
| Exceeded High |
23 |
25 |
22 |
15 |
16 |
21 |
21 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
18 |
| Scenario Percentage |
92% |
96% |
76% |
63% |
80% |
95% |
70% |
77% |
64% |
71% |
86% |
| Avg Max Increase |
11.96% |
12.53% |
9.38% |
9.20% |
10.01% |
9.57% |
9.09% |
15.52% |
18.41% |
15.39% |
6.72% |
| Max Increase |
36.44% |
53.71% |
60.00% |
24.20% |
30.26% |
20.46% |
24.52% |
48.78% |
51.10% |
70.42% |
21.95% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
22 |
18 |
14 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.55% |
-2.26% |
-1.85% |
-2.10% |
-2.55% |
-1.65% |
-3.24% |
-3.08% |
-1.86% |
-2.14% |
-1.38% |
| Max Decline |
-8.58% |
-9.41% |
-6.90% |
-15.00% |
-10.29% |
-5.49% |
-15.78% |
-11.29% |
-7.96% |
-10.87% |
-5.75% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
19 |
18 |
14 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
13 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
| Penetrated Low |
10 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
15 |
19 |
15 |
19 |
| Scenario Percentage |
53% |
67% |
86% |
70% |
78% |
64% |
85% |
68% |
83% |
65% |
79% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.21% |
8.68% |
4.95% |
7.44% |
8.59% |
6.90% |
12.76% |
14.53% |
10.49% |
10.57% |
19.63% |
| Max Decline |
11.97% |
32.33% |
12.22% |
13.82% |
23.72% |
20.37% |
31.84% |
51.43% |
45.64% |
31.79% |
63.42% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
9 |
15 |
22 |
15 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
21 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.67% |
-1.87% |
-4.63% |
-1.64% |
-2.54% |
-1.55% |
-0.86% |
-2.00% |
-2.07% |
-2.01% |
-2.86% |
| Max Increase |
-5.53% |
-5.68% |
-14.85% |
-6.76% |
-12.24% |
-8.80% |
-8.33% |
-9.74% |
-7.57% |
-9.76% |
-13.23% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
7 |
17 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
4 |
7 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| High |
337.00 |
378.30 |
391.30 |
396.00 |
387.90 |
386.00 |
402.90 |
356.40 |
334.30 |
286.25 |
200.75 |
| Low |
301.55 |
316.80 |
341.80 |
367.00 |
354.00 |
352.50 |
352.50 |
321.50 |
284.50 |
164.50 |
156.50 |
| Close/Last |
327.10 |
375.40 |
375.90 |
383.75 |
358.95 |
385.95 |
364.25 |
338.70 |
287.90 |
182.90 |
162.35 |
|
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