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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Nov 14, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 38 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 43 43 43
Closed Higher 20 24 27 21 19 19 28 23 18 22 19
Exceeded High 19 23 20 13 14 19 18 18 11 14 13
Scenario Percentage 95% 96% 74% 62% 74% 100% 64% 78% 61% 64% 68%
Avg Max Increase 10.87% 9.90% 6.91% 8.35% 11.11% 9.21% 9.19% 13.42% 19.15% 14.07% 6.75%
Max Increase 36.44% 34.46% 18.56% 24.20% 30.26% 20.46% 24.52% 48.78% 51.10% 70.42% 21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase 19 14 15 17 20 21 19 22 22 14 12
Avg Max Decline -2.40% -1.86% -2.04% -2.33% -1.92% -1.77% -2.06% -2.76% -2.30% -1.80% -1.27%
Max Decline -8.58% -7.38% -6.90% -15.00% -9.57% -5.49% -5.44% -11.29% -7.96% -10.87% -5.05%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 8 6 6 5 9 8 10 8 8 3
2002 Contract Condition Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action Yes   Yes   Yes No   Yes   Yes  
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years 38 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 43 43 43
Closed Lower 18 17 13 20 21 22 12 19 25 20 24
Penetrated Low 9 12 11 13 18 14 9 14 20 13 16
Scenario Percentage 50% 71% 85% 65% 86% 64% 75% 74% 80% 65% 67%
Avg Max Decline 6.24% 8.42% 5.33% 7.18% 8.70% 6.99% 12.68% 11.73% 7.97% 7.29% 13.50%
Max Decline 11.97% 32.33% 12.22% 13.82% 23.72% 20.37% 31.84% 22.78% 17.30% 16.35% 43.76%
Avg Days To Max Decline 10 15 22 16 13 19 19 22 20 14 13
Avg Max Increase -1.85% -1.69% -4.77% -1.71% -1.87% -1.64% -0.90% -1.81% -2.00% -1.70% -2.35%
Max Increase -5.53% -5.68% -14.85% -6.76% -8.56% -8.80% -8.33% -9.74% -7.57% -4.40% -8.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase 9 7 17 6 8 11 8 9 9 4 5
2002 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   No   Yes     Yes   Yes    
High 75.60 77.30 78.75 78.80 77.70 80.40 78.50 70.40 71.40 72.05 73.30
Low 68.45 72.30 74.85 73.05 72.40 75.00 68.80 67.30 65.95 65.70 71.15
Close/Last 75.60 73.75 78.20 74.95 77.60 78.05 68.95 69.55 66.60 71.70 71.20