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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
41 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
23 |
25 |
29 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
30 |
24 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
| Exceeded High |
21 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
| Scenario Percentage |
91% |
96% |
72% |
64% |
77% |
95% |
67% |
79% |
65% |
65% |
71% |
| Avg Max Increase |
11.02% |
9.63% |
6.61% |
8.33% |
9.86% |
9.21% |
8.89% |
13.33% |
18.02% |
13.71% |
6.33% |
| Max Increase |
36.44% |
34.46% |
18.56% |
24.20% |
30.26% |
20.46% |
24.52% |
48.78% |
51.10% |
70.42% |
21.95% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
14 |
12 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.39% |
-1.70% |
-1.95% |
-2.31% |
-2.45% |
-1.77% |
-2.29% |
-2.77% |
-2.04% |
-2.12% |
-1.44% |
| Max Decline |
-8.58% |
-7.38% |
-6.90% |
-15.00% |
-10.29% |
-5.49% |
-5.44% |
-11.29% |
-7.96% |
-10.87% |
-5.75% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
7 |
10 |
3 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Not Yet |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
41 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
18 |
19 |
14 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
13 |
20 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
| Penetrated Low |
9 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
21 |
13 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
50% |
68% |
86% |
68% |
86% |
63% |
77% |
70% |
84% |
62% |
71% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.24% |
8.43% |
4.95% |
6.80% |
8.70% |
6.57% |
11.85% |
11.73% |
7.65% |
7.29% |
14.15% |
| Max Decline |
11.97% |
32.33% |
12.22% |
13.82% |
23.72% |
20.37% |
31.84% |
22.78% |
17.30% |
16.35% |
43.76% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
10 |
15 |
22 |
15 |
13 |
18 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
14 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.85% |
-1.67% |
-4.63% |
-1.64% |
-1.87% |
-1.52% |
-1.17% |
-1.81% |
-2.00% |
-1.70% |
-2.99% |
| Max Increase |
-5.53% |
-5.68% |
-14.85% |
-6.76% |
-8.56% |
-8.80% |
-8.33% |
-9.74% |
-7.57% |
-4.40% |
-13.23% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
9 |
6 |
17 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| High |
84.90 |
84.40 |
85.60 |
80.60 |
81.35 |
78.10 |
73.35 |
70.60 |
68.15 |
65.40 |
72.55 |
| Low |
81.10 |
80.90 |
77.80 |
77.00 |
76.25 |
72.10 |
68.70 |
66.70 |
64.90 |
62.05 |
60.50 |
| Close/Last |
83.70 |
81.85 |
77.80 |
78.85 |
77.35 |
72.50 |
69.25 |
68.70 |
65.20 |
62.50 |
72.20 |
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