|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jun 30, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
43 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
20 |
22 |
27 |
26 |
26 |
32 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
29 |
23 |
| Exceeded High |
17 |
19 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
85% |
86% |
93% |
92% |
92% |
66% |
64% |
81% |
90% |
66% |
74% |
| Avg Max Increase |
7.35% |
9.95% |
12.59% |
12.13% |
10.40% |
10.45% |
9.66% |
11.68% |
10.27% |
10.32% |
7.56% |
| Max Increase |
21.17% |
40.41% |
43.40% |
38.84% |
41.33% |
62.57% |
25.75% |
35.70% |
22.29% |
32.22% |
26.67% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.48% |
-2.05% |
-1.33% |
-2.42% |
-1.88% |
-2.24% |
-2.28% |
-2.54% |
-2.20% |
-2.65% |
-1.55% |
| Max Decline |
-13.50% |
-9.39% |
-7.91% |
-9.20% |
-8.43% |
-7.15% |
-15.57% |
-11.24% |
-8.78% |
-7.11% |
-5.83% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
12 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
43 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
23 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
13 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
15 |
22 |
| Penetrated Low |
15 |
16 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
12 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
65% |
70% |
72% |
56% |
63% |
92% |
73% |
83% |
64% |
80% |
77% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.60% |
7.09% |
5.31% |
5.93% |
8.88% |
5.90% |
7.83% |
8.75% |
7.60% |
11.07% |
20.61% |
| Max Decline |
17.60% |
14.44% |
10.50% |
12.18% |
31.92% |
15.35% |
15.29% |
25.51% |
24.31% |
33.03% |
67.73% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
14 |
16 |
17 |
10 |
16 |
21 |
17 |
14 |
20 |
15 |
17 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.29% |
-2.13% |
-1.37% |
-1.56% |
-1.92% |
-4.73% |
-1.52% |
-2.12% |
-3.13% |
-1.37% |
-3.44% |
| Max Increase |
-4.33% |
-7.74% |
-4.38% |
-5.92% |
-6.10% |
-15.55% |
-6.40% |
-10.04% |
-13.83% |
-8.25% |
-15.02% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
3 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
17 |
8 |
8 |
16 |
10 |
-32 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
| High |
334.25 |
327.65 |
323.70 |
273.00 |
286.45 |
312.75 |
367.00 |
376.70 |
350.25 |
|
|
| Low |
304.95 |
301.50 |
287.00 |
247.30 |
238.75 |
266.50 |
311.20 |
312.90 |
324.80 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
322.50 |
319.55 |
288.60 |
258.70 |
274.90 |
311.70 |
353.55 |
338.90 |
345.05 |
|
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