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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
43 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
19 |
22 |
26 |
25 |
27 |
32 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
29 |
24 |
| Exceeded High |
16 |
18 |
24 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
| Scenario Percentage |
84% |
82% |
92% |
92% |
93% |
66% |
64% |
81% |
90% |
69% |
75% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.48% |
9.32% |
12.33% |
11.96% |
10.31% |
8.20% |
8.51% |
11.68% |
10.27% |
10.16% |
7.47% |
| Max Increase |
16.73% |
40.41% |
43.40% |
38.84% |
41.33% |
21.40% |
25.75% |
35.70% |
22.29% |
32.22% |
26.67% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.67% |
-2.32% |
-1.32% |
-2.39% |
-1.85% |
-2.38% |
-2.27% |
-2.54% |
-2.20% |
-2.61% |
-1.47% |
| Max Decline |
-13.50% |
-9.39% |
-7.91% |
-9.20% |
-8.43% |
-7.15% |
-15.57% |
-11.24% |
-8.78% |
-7.11% |
-5.83% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
12 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
43 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
24 |
23 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
13 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
15 |
21 |
| Penetrated Low |
15 |
16 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
13 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
63% |
70% |
74% |
53% |
67% |
92% |
73% |
83% |
64% |
87% |
76% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.60% |
7.09% |
5.20% |
5.93% |
8.88% |
5.90% |
7.83% |
8.75% |
7.60% |
10.30% |
17.75% |
| Max Decline |
17.60% |
14.44% |
10.50% |
12.18% |
31.92% |
15.35% |
15.29% |
25.51% |
24.31% |
33.03% |
46.57% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
14 |
16 |
16 |
10 |
16 |
21 |
17 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
19 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.29% |
-2.13% |
-1.26% |
-1.56% |
-1.92% |
-4.73% |
-1.52% |
-2.12% |
-3.13% |
-1.56% |
-3.26% |
| Max Increase |
-4.33% |
-7.74% |
-4.38% |
-5.92% |
-6.10% |
-15.55% |
-6.40% |
-10.04% |
-13.83% |
-8.25% |
-15.02% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
3 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
17 |
8 |
8 |
16 |
12 |
-34 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
| High |
122.05 |
129.10 |
134.40 |
136.50 |
142.55 |
146.90 |
149.75 |
144.10 |
157.40 |
165.40 |
173.80 |
| Low |
110.60 |
117.15 |
121.00 |
125.10 |
130.15 |
138.90 |
139.10 |
131.50 |
138.00 |
146.00 |
159.85 |
| Close/Last |
119.90 |
128.00 |
134.40 |
134.40 |
142.55 |
145.75 |
144.20 |
139.35 |
151.00 |
164.45 |
169.50 |
|
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