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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Oct 04, 2002
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 40 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher 16 20 25 24 25 30 21 20 20 27 23
Exceeded High 13 16 23 22 23 20 13 16 18 17 17
Scenario Percentage 81% 80% 92% 92% 92% 67% 62% 80% 90% 63% 74%
Avg Max Increase 5.82% 9.74% 11.57% 11.50% 10.82% 8.47% 8.52% 12.39% 9.63% 10.62% 7.14%
Max Increase 16.73% 40.41% 43.40% 38.84% 41.33% 21.40% 25.75% 35.70% 22.29% 32.22% 26.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 17 18 18 14 15 17 18 18 16 15
Avg Max Decline -2.65% -1.80% -1.11% -2.49% -1.98% -2.40% -2.29% -1.68% -2.10% -2.21% -1.42%
Max Decline -13.50% -9.39% -7.91% -9.20% -8.43% -7.15% -15.57% -10.53% -8.78% -6.21% -5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 8 7 9 8 5 6 5 8 7 4
2002 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes   Yes   No   Yes No   Yes
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years 40 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower 24 22 18 19 18 13 21 23 23 15 20
Penetrated Low 15 16 14 10 12 11 14 20 15 12 15
Scenario Percentage 63% 73% 78% 53% 67% 85% 67% 87% 65% 80% 75%
Avg Max Decline 6.60% 7.09% 5.20% 5.93% 8.60% 6.33% 7.94% 8.75% 8.06% 11.07% 14.78%
Max Decline 17.60% 14.44% 10.50% 12.18% 31.92% 15.35% 15.29% 25.51% 24.31% 33.03% 42.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline 14 16 16 10 15 21 17 14 22 15 16
Avg Max Increase -1.29% -2.13% -1.26% -1.56% -1.66% -4.87% -1.51% -2.12% -3.34% -1.37% -2.75%
Max Increase -4.33% -7.74% -4.38% -5.92% -6.10% -15.55% -6.40% -10.04% -13.83% -8.25% -15.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase 3 10 10 9 6 18 8 8 17 10 -38
2002 Contract Condition Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action Yes   Yes   No   Yes     Yes  
High 67.80 74.75 73.45 74.85 76.60 78.10 78.10 77.00 79.80 77.90 69.50
Low 64.65 62.85 67.70 67.55 71.55 74.15 72.20 71.90 74.50 67.95 66.55
Close/Last 64.80 74.55 67.70 74.85 73.00 77.50 74.35 77.00 77.45 68.10 68.70