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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
42 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
18 |
21 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
31 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
29 |
23 |
| Exceeded High |
15 |
17 |
24 |
23 |
24 |
20 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
83% |
81% |
92% |
88% |
92% |
65% |
64% |
82% |
90% |
66% |
74% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.11% |
9.48% |
12.25% |
11.96% |
10.52% |
8.47% |
8.51% |
11.50% |
9.63% |
9.86% |
7.14% |
| Max Increase |
16.73% |
40.41% |
43.40% |
38.84% |
41.33% |
21.40% |
25.75% |
35.70% |
22.29% |
32.22% |
26.67% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.70% |
-2.14% |
-0.99% |
-2.39% |
-1.82% |
-2.40% |
-2.27% |
-2.39% |
-2.10% |
-2.60% |
-1.42% |
| Max Decline |
-13.50% |
-9.39% |
-7.91% |
-9.20% |
-8.43% |
-7.15% |
-15.57% |
-11.24% |
-8.78% |
-7.11% |
-5.83% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
13 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
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Yes |
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| Action |
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Yes |
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Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
42 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
24 |
23 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
14 |
22 |
23 |
25 |
15 |
22 |
| Penetrated Low |
15 |
16 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
20 |
16 |
12 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
63% |
70% |
74% |
53% |
68% |
86% |
68% |
87% |
64% |
80% |
77% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.60% |
7.09% |
5.20% |
5.93% |
8.64% |
5.90% |
7.76% |
8.75% |
7.60% |
11.07% |
16.71% |
| Max Decline |
17.60% |
14.44% |
10.50% |
12.18% |
31.92% |
15.35% |
15.29% |
25.51% |
24.31% |
33.03% |
46.57% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
14 |
16 |
16 |
10 |
16 |
21 |
17 |
14 |
20 |
15 |
18 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.29% |
-2.13% |
-1.26% |
-1.56% |
-1.66% |
-4.73% |
-1.63% |
-2.12% |
-3.13% |
-1.37% |
-3.10% |
| Max Increase |
-4.33% |
-7.74% |
-4.38% |
-5.92% |
-6.10% |
-15.55% |
-6.40% |
-10.04% |
-13.83% |
-8.25% |
-15.02% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
3 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
17 |
8 |
8 |
16 |
10 |
-32 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| High |
90.40 |
85.40 |
88.80 |
84.90 |
84.20 |
85.60 |
80.10 |
80.90 |
77.10 |
72.30 |
69.80 |
| Low |
83.80 |
82.45 |
83.70 |
80.70 |
80.70 |
77.40 |
76.30 |
75.65 |
71.00 |
67.50 |
65.60 |
| Close/Last |
85.05 |
84.15 |
84.10 |
83.85 |
81.85 |
77.40 |
78.25 |
76.50 |
71.35 |
68.25 |
67.85 |
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