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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 21 17 21 26 24 26 31 23 19 23
Exceeded High   17 12 13 18 26 23 24 19 17 16 20
Scenario Percentage   81% 57% 76% 86% 100% 96% 92% 61% 74% 84% 87%
Avg Max Increase   8.21% 12.66% 10.01% 10.86% 11.05% 11.71% 11.42% 12.84% 10.28% 10.32% 5.82%
Max Increase   25.67% 28.89% 19.96% 39.30% 44.19% 41.30% 44.71% 64.86% 25.45% 21.25% 12.00%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 19 21 19 16 16 15 15 14 15 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.94% -1.42% -2.25% -2.93% -1.79% -2.91% -2.58% -3.22% -2.61% -3.28% -1.30%
Max Decline   -8.85% -7.34% -5.52% -9.72% -8.78% -10.04% -10.51% -7.75% -16.01% -12.21% -5.47%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 7 11 10 8 8 10 9 5 8 3
2016 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action           Yes   Yes No No   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 24 28 24 19 21 19 14 22 26 22
Penetrated Low   15 20 21 17 13 12 13 11 18 18 11
Scenario Percentage   65% 83% 75% 71% 68% 57% 68% 79% 82% 69% 50%
Avg Max Decline   13.64% 8.95% 8.55% 9.87% 7.18% 7.35% 9.13% 5.97% 9.05% 10.46% 5.95%
Max Decline   49.51% 45.42% 29.97% 22.26% 16.97% 12.34% 32.42% 12.83% 18.89% 26.78% 15.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 18 16 17 16 10 16 19 17 14 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.39% -2.01% -1.50% -2.05% -0.68% -1.79% -1.98% -5.42% -2.81% -1.64% 0.21%
Max Increase   -7.90% -5.53% -6.74% -8.61% -4.01% -5.83% -6.44% -15.97% -11.15% -7.91% -1.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 10 3 10 10 8 8 17 11 7 4
2016 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes       Yes  
Action   No Yes Yes Yes   No       Yes  
High 265.50 243.05 248.60 243.60 236.95 215.95 214.80 216.65 232.90 230.55 229.40 220.45
Low 239.15 221.70 225.05 228.75 201.75 204.30 195.80 200.75 210.35 207.90 203.80 201.30
Close/Last 240.15 234.90 234.75 232.95 206.10 214.65 207.60 213.70 219.10 228.35 209.55 219.45

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