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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Feb 28, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
| Tested Years |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
22 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
27 |
26 |
25 |
34 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
| Exceeded High |
19 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
26 |
24 |
24 |
22 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
86% |
73% |
80% |
87% |
96% |
92% |
96% |
65% |
59% |
90% |
76% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.39% |
12.22% |
7.87% |
9.66% |
12.48% |
12.84% |
11.37% |
11.16% |
10.77% |
9.33% |
6.48% |
| Max Increase |
25.67% |
28.89% |
19.96% |
39.30% |
44.19% |
41.30% |
46.81% |
64.86% |
25.45% |
21.25% |
10.87% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.59% |
-1.98% |
-2.59% |
-2.35% |
-1.67% |
-2.92% |
-2.03% |
-2.44% |
-2.65% |
-2.91% |
-1.34% |
| Max Decline |
-8.85% |
-7.34% |
-13.92% |
-9.72% |
-8.27% |
-10.04% |
-8.75% |
-7.75% |
-16.01% |
-12.21% |
-5.13% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
12 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
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|
|
Yes |
|
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| Action |
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
|
Not Yet |
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Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
| Tested Years |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
21 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
11 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
| Penetrated Low |
13 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
62% |
82% |
68% |
73% |
78% |
53% |
65% |
91% |
74% |
76% |
71% |
| Avg Max Decline |
10.31% |
6.97% |
6.42% |
7.61% |
5.32% |
6.41% |
8.59% |
5.80% |
8.10% |
9.20% |
16.20% |
| Max Decline |
20.44% |
14.76% |
17.77% |
14.74% |
10.02% |
12.34% |
32.42% |
19.20% |
16.99% |
26.78% |
68.01% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
21 |
18 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
10 |
16 |
20 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.71% |
-1.76% |
-1.43% |
-2.34% |
-1.58% |
-1.55% |
-2.03% |
-4.70% |
-2.39% |
-1.83% |
-3.54% |
| Max Increase |
-7.43% |
-4.58% |
-4.59% |
-8.61% |
-4.01% |
-5.83% |
-6.44% |
-15.97% |
-11.15% |
-9.43% |
-14.46% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
11 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
8 |
17 |
11 |
9 |
10 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
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| Action |
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Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
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| High |
343.25 |
348.15 |
341.80 |
332.50 |
325.00 |
272.20 |
289.80 |
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| Low |
313.50 |
317.00 |
310.55 |
301.00 |
285.50 |
249.30 |
240.00 |
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| Close/Last |
329.60 |
332.25 |
327.50 |
320.05 |
289.05 |
260.30 |
275.70 |
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