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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jul 29, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 21 20 18 22 26 26 25 32 23 21 21
Exceeded High 18 14 14 18 25 23 24 20 14 19 15
Scenario Percentage 86% 70% 78% 82% 96% 88% 96% 63% 61% 90% 71%
Avg Max Increase 8.05% 12.13% 6.72% 9.34% 12.19% 12.74% 11.51% 8.92% 9.61% 9.39% 6.97%
Max Increase 25.67% 28.89% 16.82% 39.30% 44.19% 41.30% 46.81% 23.85% 24.97% 21.25% 14.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 19 18 17 19 20 15 16 17 16 17
Avg Max Decline -1.66% -1.77% -2.77% -2.29% -1.37% -2.91% -1.96% -2.69% -2.47% -2.75% -1.30%
Max Decline -8.85% -6.14% -13.92% -9.72% -8.27% -10.04% -8.75% -7.75% -16.01% -12.21% -5.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline 12 9 12 9 7 9 9 7 6 7 3
2004 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes No   Yes  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 20 23 26 23 19 19 20 12 22 24 24
Penetrated Low 12 19 17 16 15 10 14 10 16 19 16
Scenario Percentage 60% 83% 65% 70% 79% 53% 70% 83% 73% 79% 67%
Avg Max Decline 10.88% 6.80% 6.42% 7.61% 5.22% 6.41% 8.40% 5.80% 8.04% 9.20% 12.96%
Max Decline 20.44% 14.76% 17.77% 14.74% 10.02% 12.34% 32.42% 19.20% 16.99% 26.78% 41.33%
Avg Days To Max Decline 21 18 14 16 16 10 16 20 17 14 13
Avg Max Increase -1.23% -1.64% -1.43% -2.34% -1.48% -1.55% -1.81% -4.70% -2.55% -1.83% -3.03%
Max Increase -7.17% -4.58% -4.59% -8.61% -4.01% -5.83% -6.44% -15.97% -11.15% -9.43% -14.46%
Avg Days to Max Increase 9 7 4 10 10 7 8 17 11 9 10
2004 Contract Condition Yes     Yes         Yes   Yes
Action No     No         Yes   Yes
High 81.75 83.85 94.35 95.80 103.70 112.75 133.85 138.20 137.60 128.50 130.00
Low 79.35 81.60 83.10 89.00 94.40 105.40 112.30 125.50 116.10 113.70 112.15
Close/Last 81.40 82.70 94.20 91.30 103.70 112.75 133.00 135.50 120.75 127.75 120.50