|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
| Tested Years |
41 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
21 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
32 |
23 |
21 |
21 |
| Exceeded High |
18 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
25 |
23 |
24 |
20 |
14 |
19 |
15 |
| Scenario Percentage |
86% |
70% |
78% |
82% |
96% |
88% |
96% |
63% |
61% |
90% |
71% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.05% |
12.13% |
6.72% |
9.34% |
12.19% |
12.74% |
11.51% |
8.92% |
9.61% |
9.63% |
7.96% |
| Max Increase |
25.67% |
28.89% |
16.82% |
39.30% |
44.19% |
41.30% |
46.81% |
23.85% |
24.97% |
22.91% |
23.93% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.66% |
-1.77% |
-2.77% |
-2.29% |
-1.37% |
-2.91% |
-1.96% |
-2.69% |
-2.47% |
-2.75% |
-1.30% |
| Max Decline |
-8.85% |
-6.14% |
-13.92% |
-9.72% |
-8.27% |
-10.04% |
-8.75% |
-7.75% |
-16.01% |
-12.21% |
-5.13% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
12 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
No |
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
| Tested Years |
41 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
20 |
23 |
26 |
23 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
12 |
22 |
24 |
24 |
| Penetrated Low |
12 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
10 |
16 |
19 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
60% |
83% |
65% |
70% |
79% |
53% |
70% |
83% |
73% |
79% |
67% |
| Avg Max Decline |
10.88% |
6.80% |
6.42% |
7.61% |
5.22% |
6.41% |
8.40% |
5.80% |
8.04% |
9.20% |
12.96% |
| Max Decline |
20.44% |
14.76% |
17.77% |
14.74% |
10.02% |
12.34% |
32.42% |
19.20% |
16.99% |
26.78% |
41.33% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
21 |
18 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
10 |
16 |
20 |
17 |
14 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.23% |
-1.64% |
-1.43% |
-2.34% |
-1.48% |
-1.55% |
-1.81% |
-4.70% |
-2.55% |
-1.83% |
-3.11% |
| Max Increase |
-7.17% |
-4.58% |
-4.59% |
-8.61% |
-4.01% |
-5.83% |
-6.44% |
-15.97% |
-11.15% |
-9.43% |
-14.46% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
9 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
8 |
17 |
11 |
9 |
10 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
No |
|
Yes |
|
|
| High |
72.80 |
70.50 |
67.40 |
74.35 |
73.55 |
75.20 |
76.15 |
77.75 |
77.75 |
76.55 |
79.45 |
| Low |
69.20 |
67.10 |
64.00 |
62.30 |
67.10 |
66.90 |
71.00 |
72.00 |
71.60 |
71.25 |
73.75 |
| Close/Last |
70.70 |
67.10 |
64.30 |
74.10 |
67.10 |
74.35 |
72.55 |
77.00 |
73.90 |
76.40 |
76.75 |
|
|