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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   19 32 21 22 17 22 25 24 25 30 21
Exceeded High   18 22 16 12 12 20 24 23 21 20 13
Scenario Percentage   95% 69% 76% 55% 71% 91% 96% 96% 84% 67% 62%
Avg Max Increase   8.40% 7.92% 8.78% 13.28% 10.77% 10.87% 10.22% 12.16% 12.21% 12.28% 7.40%
Max Increase   29.45% 35.14% 25.32% 34.02% 18.99% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 45.27% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 19 16 19 21 18 17 16 15 14 12
Avg Max Decline   -0.82% -2.13% -2.47% -1.87% -2.23% -3.83% -2.33% -3.13% -2.61% -3.44% -1.29%
Max Decline   -4.42% -14.38% -10.07% -8.34% -5.67% -9.98% -9.22% -11.06% -10.75% -8.66% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 11 14 7 12 9 8 8 6 9 2
2016 Contract Condition         Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action         No     Yes   Yes Not Yet Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 11 22 23 27 23 20 21 20 15 24
Penetrated Low   14 10 15 20 20 16 13 11 14 11 16
Scenario Percentage   58% 91% 68% 87% 74% 70% 65% 52% 70% 73% 67%
Avg Max Decline   6.78% 8.10% 13.83% 8.62% 8.88% 10.56% 8.09% 8.21% 8.83% 6.60% 5.48%
Max Decline   16.44% 20.64% 50.39% 46.68% 31.11% 23.48% 16.91% 12.64% 32.96% 17.76% 13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 22 20 17 15 17 19 10 16 18 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.29% -1.24% -1.38% -1.80% -1.62% -2.43% -1.42% -1.71% -2.56% -4.80% -1.36%
Max Increase   -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -8.81% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 12 7 8 3 10 10 8 9 16 4
2016 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes      
Action   Yes Yes No   Yes Yes   No      
High 294.05 276.65 264.95 244.95 247.25 243.45 236.75 215.40 214.35 216.40 232.35 230.20
Low 274.95 258.55 238.00 221.20 224.10 228.70 200.85 203.40 194.40 200.20 209.55 206.70
Close/Last 274.95 263.50 239.50 234.50 234.65 232.90 205.50 214.15 207.15 213.25 218.30 227.90

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