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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   19 33 21 21 17 22 24 25 25 30 20
Exceeded High   18 22 16 12 12 20 23 24 21 21 13
Scenario Percentage   95% 67% 76% 57% 71% 91% 96% 96% 84% 70% 65%
Avg Max Increase   8.40% 7.92% 8.78% 13.28% 10.77% 10.87% 10.62% 12.49% 12.79% 11.83% 7.40%
Max Increase   29.45% 35.14% 25.32% 34.02% 18.99% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 45.27% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 19 16 19 21 18 16 16 14 13 12
Avg Max Decline   -0.82% -2.13% -2.47% -1.87% -2.23% -3.83% -2.03% -3.18% -2.51% -3.31% -1.29%
Max Decline   -4.42% -14.38% -10.07% -8.34% -5.67% -9.98% -8.55% -11.06% -10.75% -8.66% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 11 14 7 12 9 8 8 6 9 2
2015 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes       Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes No     No       Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 10 22 24 27 23 21 20 20 15 25
Penetrated Low   14 9 16 21 20 16 14 11 14 11 17
Scenario Percentage   58% 90% 73% 88% 74% 70% 67% 55% 70% 73% 68%
Avg Max Decline   5.96% 8.15% 13.82% 8.94% 8.66% 10.80% 7.91% 8.21% 8.83% 6.60% 5.56%
Max Decline   16.44% 20.64% 50.39% 46.68% 31.11% 23.48% 16.91% 12.64% 32.96% 17.76% 13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 22 20 17 14 18 19 10 16 18 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.64% -1.12% -1.39% -1.76% -1.70% -2.18% -1.37% -1.71% -2.56% -4.80% -1.30%
Max Increase   -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -8.81% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 13 8 8 3 10 10 8 9 16 4
2015 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes      
Action       Yes Yes   Yes Yes No      
High 314.15 320.15 329.40 326.35 321.70 309.85 306.65 294.65 283.40 271.40 291.45 288.95
Low 301.30 302.00 318.45 311.75 301.60 295.00 284.65 273.00 242.00 246.00 255.25 264.75
Close/Last 310.20 320.05 323.95 317.20 301.60 303.60 284.80 282.35 249.05 269.15 274.00 288.65

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