|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 07, 2009 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
18 |
33 |
23 |
24 |
20 |
22 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
32 |
20 |
| Exceeded High |
17 |
23 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
20 |
24 |
25 |
22 |
23 |
12 |
| Scenario Percentage |
94% |
70% |
83% |
71% |
85% |
91% |
96% |
93% |
88% |
72% |
60% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.05% |
8.68% |
10.14% |
12.46% |
8.56% |
10.46% |
11.85% |
14.91% |
13.63% |
11.99% |
8.13% |
| Max Increase |
19.48% |
35.14% |
31.77% |
34.02% |
18.99% |
37.37% |
41.67% |
42.84% |
52.49% |
68.90% |
24.72% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
20 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.71% |
-2.22% |
-1.92% |
-2.22% |
-2.42% |
-3.39% |
-2.13% |
-3.09% |
-2.37% |
-2.68% |
-1.45% |
| Max Decline |
-2.48% |
-14.21% |
-10.07% |
-8.34% |
-14.19% |
-9.98% |
-8.55% |
-11.06% |
-10.75% |
-8.66% |
-5.31% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
5 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
25 |
10 |
20 |
21 |
24 |
23 |
20 |
18 |
20 |
13 |
25 |
| Penetrated Low |
15 |
8 |
13 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
10 |
20 |
| Scenario Percentage |
60% |
80% |
65% |
86% |
71% |
74% |
70% |
50% |
65% |
77% |
80% |
| Avg Max Decline |
5.70% |
9.34% |
10.46% |
7.28% |
7.85% |
9.23% |
7.08% |
8.05% |
8.81% |
7.72% |
15.42% |
| Max Decline |
16.44% |
25.66% |
20.86% |
15.54% |
18.54% |
21.89% |
16.84% |
12.64% |
32.96% |
29.02% |
53.07% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
17 |
24 |
22 |
18 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.55% |
-1.21% |
-1.79% |
-1.95% |
-1.33% |
-2.21% |
-1.71% |
-1.33% |
-2.67% |
-3.96% |
-2.87% |
| Max Increase |
-7.97% |
-7.59% |
-8.76% |
-4.73% |
-5.28% |
-9.98% |
-5.61% |
-6.04% |
-8.44% |
-8.96% |
-10.77% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
12 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
3 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
9 |
16 |
9 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
|
No |
|
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
Not Yet |
|
| High |
328.30 |
353.30 |
346.05 |
359.70 |
377.00 |
338.25 |
320.25 |
338.00 |
391.05 |
402.40 |
404.95 |
| Low |
307.15 |
334.45 |
301.00 |
320.60 |
345.75 |
293.50 |
289.95 |
303.40 |
319.50 |
346.10 |
370.90 |
| Close/Last |
328.30 |
350.85 |
333.20 |
358.90 |
348.75 |
319.20 |
305.20 |
331.60 |
385.50 |
383.10 |
393.40 |
|
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