|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Feb 28, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
17 |
32 |
24 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
32 |
18 |
| Exceeded High |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
25 |
26 |
21 |
23 |
10 |
| Scenario Percentage |
94% |
69% |
83% |
73% |
81% |
92% |
96% |
93% |
88% |
72% |
56% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.08% |
8.77% |
9.47% |
12.92% |
8.56% |
9.77% |
11.43% |
13.66% |
12.55% |
11.15% |
8.20% |
| Max Increase |
19.48% |
35.14% |
31.77% |
34.02% |
18.99% |
37.37% |
41.67% |
42.84% |
52.49% |
68.90% |
24.72% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
20 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.87% |
-1.55% |
-1.93% |
-2.45% |
-2.42% |
-3.17% |
-2.05% |
-2.88% |
-1.78% |
-2.66% |
-1.27% |
| Max Decline |
-2.48% |
-4.34% |
-10.07% |
-8.34% |
-14.19% |
-9.98% |
-8.55% |
-11.06% |
-8.63% |
-8.66% |
-3.54% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
5 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
|
Not Yet |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
26 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
23 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
21 |
13 |
27 |
| Penetrated Low |
16 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
16 |
15 |
13 |
8 |
14 |
11 |
21 |
| Scenario Percentage |
62% |
73% |
68% |
87% |
70% |
71% |
68% |
47% |
67% |
85% |
78% |
| Avg Max Decline |
5.49% |
9.34% |
10.46% |
6.69% |
6.50% |
8.39% |
6.33% |
8.08% |
8.41% |
7.51% |
14.85% |
| Max Decline |
16.44% |
25.66% |
20.86% |
15.54% |
18.54% |
15.05% |
10.17% |
12.64% |
32.96% |
29.02% |
53.07% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
17 |
24 |
22 |
17 |
12 |
16 |
20 |
10 |
17 |
20 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.49% |
-1.21% |
-1.79% |
-1.87% |
-1.56% |
-2.48% |
-2.05% |
-1.50% |
-2.56% |
-3.60% |
-2.74% |
| Max Increase |
-7.97% |
-7.59% |
-8.76% |
-4.73% |
-5.28% |
-9.98% |
-5.61% |
-6.04% |
-8.44% |
-8.96% |
-10.77% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
11 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
3 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
14 |
9 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| High |
329.10 |
339.75 |
350.05 |
354.85 |
348.95 |
338.30 |
327.00 |
280.65 |
289.00 |
|
|
| Low |
270.55 |
308.00 |
320.00 |
321.00 |
314.00 |
302.50 |
285.00 |
250.00 |
240.00 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
309.75 |
334.30 |
335.10 |
338.50 |
331.80 |
320.05 |
288.60 |
260.40 |
275.20 |
|
|
|
|
