Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 17 32 24 23 21 23 25 27 25 33 19
Exceeded High 16 22 20 16 17 21 24 25 22 24 11
Scenario Percentage 94% 69% 83% 70% 81% 91% 96% 93% 88% 73% 58%
Avg Max Increase 8.08% 8.96% 9.73% 12.92% 8.56% 10.06% 11.88% 14.18% 13.56% 11.54% 8.11%
Max Increase 19.48% 35.14% 31.77% 34.02% 18.99% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 52.49% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase 19 20 17 20 18 18 19 20 14 15 14
Avg Max Decline -0.87% -1.67% -1.92% -2.45% -2.42% -3.36% -2.13% -2.96% -1.98% -2.71% -1.27%
Max Decline -2.48% -4.34% -10.07% -8.34% -14.19% -9.98% -8.55% -11.06% -8.63% -8.66% -3.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline 5 9 12 9 10 8 8 8 6 8 3
2007 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes         Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes No         Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 26 11 19 22 23 22 20 18 20 12 26
Penetrated Low 16 8 13 19 16 16 14 9 13 10 20
Scenario Percentage 62% 73% 68% 86% 70% 73% 70% 50% 65% 83% 77%
Avg Max Decline 5.49% 9.34% 10.46% 6.96% 7.29% 9.28% 7.09% 8.06% 8.81% 7.72% 15.42%
Max Decline 16.44% 25.66% 20.86% 15.54% 18.54% 22.54% 16.91% 12.64% 32.96% 29.02% 53.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 24 22 17 13 15 19 10 16 19 12
Avg Max Increase -1.49% -1.21% -1.79% -1.89% -1.60% -2.46% -1.71% -1.37% -2.68% -3.96% -2.89%
Max Increase -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -5.28% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -10.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 14 9 7 3 10 10 8 9 16 9
2007 Contract Condition Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes      
Action No       Yes Yes Yes Yes      
High 329.10 339.75 350.05 354.85 348.95 338.30 327.00 280.65 290.00 316.00 369.75
Low 270.55 308.00 320.00 321.00 314.00 302.50 284.75 247.90 239.80 262.50 310.75
Close/Last 309.75 334.30 335.10 338.50 331.80 320.05 288.60 260.40 275.20 314.60 354.15

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy