MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 31, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	42	42	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	16	31	23	21	20	24	25	27	25	31	18
Exceeded High	15	21	19	15	16	21	24	25	22	22	10
Scenario Percentage	94%	68%	83%	71%	80%	88%	96%	93%	88%	71%	56%
Avg Max Increase	7.32%	8.57%	9.18%	12.66%	7.90%	9.38%	11.22%	13.65%	12.30%	8.52%	6.44%
Max Increase	15.40%	35.14%	31.77%	34.02%	16.14%	37.37%	41.67%	42.84%	52.49%	25.68%	18.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	19	16	19	18	17	18	19	15	16	16
Avg Max Decline	-0.81%	-1.64%	-1.99%	-2.63%	-2.56%	-3.35%	-2.08%	-2.84%	-1.74%	-2.88%	-1.27%
Max Decline	-2.48%	-4.34%	-10.07%	-8.34%	-14.19%	-9.98%	-8.55%	-11.06%	-8.63%	-8.66%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	9	12	9	11	8	8	8	7	8	3
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	42	42	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	26	11	19	24	24	21	20	18	20	14	27
Penetrated Low	16	8	13	21	16	15	14	8	14	11	21
Scenario Percentage	62%	73%	68%	88%	67%	71%	70%	44%	70%	79%	78%
Avg Max Decline	5.49%	9.34%	10.46%	6.56%	6.50%	8.39%	6.16%	8.08%	8.41%	7.51%	14.85%
Max Decline	16.44%	25.66%	20.86%	15.54%	18.54%	15.05%	10.17%	12.64%	32.96%	29.02%	53.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	24	22	17	12	16	20	10	17	20	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.49%	-1.21%	-1.79%	-1.76%	-1.56%	-2.48%	-1.89%	-1.50%	-2.56%	-3.60%	-2.74%
Max Increase	-7.97%	-7.59%	-8.76%	-4.73%	-5.28%	-9.98%	-5.61%	-6.04%	-8.44%	-8.96%	-10.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	14	9	8	3	10	10	9	9	14	9
2006 Contract Condition
Action
High	132.00	143.30	151.50	161.20	171.50	187.00	200.80	220.40
Low	124.70	124.50	143.25	148.00	160.50	168.50	188.00	195.80
Close/Last	126.80	142.65	149.15	160.05	168.75	186.75	198.35	220.40