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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
17 |
32 |
24 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
32 |
18 |
| Exceeded High |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
25 |
26 |
21 |
23 |
9 |
| Scenario Percentage |
94% |
69% |
83% |
73% |
81% |
92% |
96% |
93% |
88% |
72% |
50% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.08% |
8.77% |
9.47% |
12.92% |
8.56% |
9.77% |
11.43% |
13.66% |
12.55% |
11.15% |
8.05% |
| Max Increase |
19.48% |
35.14% |
31.77% |
34.02% |
18.99% |
37.37% |
41.67% |
42.84% |
52.49% |
68.90% |
24.72% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
20 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.87% |
-1.55% |
-1.93% |
-2.45% |
-2.42% |
-3.17% |
-2.05% |
-2.88% |
-1.78% |
-2.66% |
-1.02% |
| Max Decline |
-2.48% |
-4.34% |
-10.07% |
-8.34% |
-14.19% |
-9.98% |
-8.55% |
-11.06% |
-8.63% |
-8.66% |
-3.54% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
5 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
| Tested Years |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
26 |
11 |
19 |
23 |
23 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
21 |
13 |
27 |
| Penetrated Low |
16 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
16 |
15 |
13 |
8 |
14 |
11 |
21 |
| Scenario Percentage |
62% |
73% |
68% |
87% |
70% |
71% |
68% |
47% |
67% |
85% |
78% |
| Avg Max Decline |
5.49% |
9.34% |
10.46% |
6.69% |
6.50% |
8.39% |
6.33% |
8.08% |
8.41% |
7.44% |
14.81% |
| Max Decline |
16.44% |
25.66% |
20.86% |
15.54% |
18.54% |
15.05% |
10.17% |
12.64% |
32.96% |
29.02% |
53.07% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
17 |
24 |
22 |
17 |
12 |
16 |
20 |
10 |
17 |
20 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.49% |
-1.21% |
-1.79% |
-1.87% |
-1.56% |
-2.48% |
-2.05% |
-1.50% |
-2.56% |
-3.60% |
-2.74% |
| Max Increase |
-7.97% |
-7.59% |
-8.76% |
-4.73% |
-5.28% |
-9.98% |
-5.61% |
-6.04% |
-8.44% |
-8.96% |
-10.77% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
11 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
3 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
14 |
9 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
No |
|
|
|
|
|
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
| High |
119.20 |
120.70 |
122.60 |
128.20 |
132.00 |
139.50 |
141.65 |
143.90 |
150.30 |
152.10 |
153.60 |
| Low |
108.65 |
113.10 |
116.50 |
116.00 |
117.00 |
124.95 |
127.10 |
129.50 |
134.40 |
144.30 |
141.00 |
| Close/Last |
112.30 |
120.70 |
120.70 |
127.65 |
127.70 |
138.20 |
141.60 |
141.00 |
149.85 |
150.25 |
149.30 |
|
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