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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jun 09, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 41 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 16 30 24 20 20 23 25 28 24 30 19
Exceeded High 15 20 20 14 16 20 24 25 21 21 10
Scenario Percentage 94% 67% 83% 70% 80% 87% 96% 89% 88% 70% 53%
Avg Max Increase 7.32% 8.69% 8.80% 12.90% 7.45% 9.64% 11.14% 13.65% 12.76% 8.57% 6.76%
Max Increase 15.40% 35.14% 31.77% 34.02% 16.14% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 52.49% 25.68% 18.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 19 17 18 16 18 18 19 15 15 16
Avg Max Decline -0.81% -1.53% -2.22% -2.22% -2.47% -3.11% -1.70% -2.84% -1.65% -2.73% -0.97%
Max Decline -2.48% -4.34% -10.07% -7.83% -14.19% -9.98% -8.39% -11.06% -8.63% -8.66% -3.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 7 13 9 11 8 8 8 6 7 3
2004 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 41 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 25 11 19 25 24 22 20 17 21 15 26
Penetrated Low 16 8 13 21 16 15 14 8 15 11 20
Scenario Percentage 64% 73% 68% 84% 67% 68% 70% 47% 71% 73% 77%
Avg Max Decline 5.49% 9.34% 10.46% 6.56% 6.50% 8.39% 6.16% 8.08% 8.27% 7.44% 13.01%
Max Decline 16.44% 25.66% 20.86% 15.54% 18.54% 15.05% 10.17% 12.64% 32.96% 29.02% 53.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 24 22 17 12 16 20 10 16 20 13
Avg Max Increase -1.49% -1.21% -1.79% -1.76% -1.56% -2.48% -1.89% -1.50% -2.29% -3.60% -2.47%
Max Increase -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -5.28% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -10.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 14 9 8 3 10 10 9 9 14 8
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes     Yes         Yes
Action Yes   No     No         Yes
High 80.30 81.80 81.85 84.05 94.40 96.10 104.60 113.85 135.90 139.90 137.70
Low 76.05 76.00 79.30 81.50 83.00 89.00 94.60 105.60 113.30 125.60 116.30
Close/Last 76.40 81.80 81.30 82.60 94.35 91.35 104.15 113.80 134.60 136.00 120.95