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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of May 29, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 40 40 42 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 16 29 24 19 19 23 24 27 23 29 19
Exceeded High 15 19 20 13 15 20 23 24 20 21 11
Scenario Percentage 94% 66% 83% 68% 79% 87% 96% 89% 87% 72% 58%
Avg Max Increase 7.32% 9.00% 8.80% 12.64% 7.23% 9.64% 10.30% 13.26% 13.21% 8.57% 7.01%
Max Increase 15.40% 35.14% 31.77% 34.02% 16.14% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 52.49% 25.68% 18.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 19 17 20 16 18 18 20 16 15 17
Avg Max Decline -0.81% -1.45% -2.22% -2.43% -2.25% -3.11% -1.84% -2.94% -1.82% -2.73% -1.20%
Max Decline -2.48% -4.34% -10.07% -7.83% -14.19% -9.98% -8.39% -11.06% -8.63% -8.66% -3.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 7 13 9 10 8 8 8 6 7 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes     Yes
Action No   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes     Yes
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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years 40 40 42 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 24 11 18 25 24 21 20 17 21 15 25
Penetrated Low 15 8 13 21 16 15 14 8 15 11 19
Scenario Percentage 63% 73% 72% 84% 67% 71% 70% 47% 71% 73% 76%
Avg Max Decline 5.82% 9.34% 10.46% 6.56% 6.50% 8.39% 6.16% 8.08% 8.27% 7.44% 11.63%
Max Decline 16.44% 25.66% 20.86% 15.54% 18.54% 15.05% 10.17% 12.64% 32.96% 29.02% 53.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline 18 24 22 17 12 16 20 10 16 20 14
Avg Max Increase -1.61% -1.21% -1.79% -1.76% -1.56% -2.48% -1.89% -1.50% -2.29% -3.60% -2.41%
Max Increase -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -5.28% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -10.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase 12 14 9 8 3 10 10 9 9 14 8
2003 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes     No   Yes Yes  
High 81.05 78.95 71.60 72.50 73.00 76.15 77.40 80.00 80.35 79.40 74.20
Low 76.30 70.30 68.80 67.70 67.45 72.45 70.15 70.65 74.40 71.15 70.70
Close/Last 78.95 70.30 70.85 68.00 72.80 76.15 70.85 80.00 78.10 71.45 72.50