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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jan 31, 2017
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   43 43 43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 19 19 30 22 22 18 21 26 24 24
Exceeded High   17 13 18 21 17 12 11 19 24 22 18
Scenario Percentage   77% 68% 95% 70% 77% 55% 61% 90% 92% 92% 75%
Avg Max Increase   8.60% 9.55% 8.86% 7.04% 9.92% 14.51% 16.56% 11.50% 10.06% 12.47% 7.68%
Max Increase   22.59% 24.85% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 43.44% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 23 17 17 20 19 22 19 16 16 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.32% -2.22% -1.09% -2.77% -3.54% -2.38% -2.09% -4.30% -2.39% -3.12% -1.91%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.82% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 10 4 12 14 7 10 10 8 8 4
2017 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action   No   Yes No   Yes   No   Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   43 43 43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 24 24 12 22 23 25 24 19 21 21
Penetrated Low   17 19 13 11 15 19 19 16 12 11 11
Scenario Percentage   81% 79% 54% 92% 68% 83% 76% 67% 63% 52% 52%
Avg Max Decline   8.29% 8.77% 7.53% 10.56% 14.67% 9.67% 9.60% 10.97% 8.19% 7.80% 5.68%
Max Decline   17.75% 22.03% 18.21% 30.67% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 11.35% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 13 17 20 20 18 16 18 17 10 16
Avg Max Increase   -1.85% -1.12% -1.76% -1.21% -1.89% -2.19% -2.06% -2.88% -1.73% -2.72% -1.36%
Max Increase   -6.88% -8.53% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 4 11 11 7 8 4 10 10 6 3
2017 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action     Yes     Yes   No   Not Yet    
High 231.60 230.50 228.30 221.10 228.75 226.65 222.80 222.50 275.30 271.30 273.75  
Low 213.65 210.05 206.60 204.05 213.45 207.95 207.50 209.70 220.90 244.80 247.25  
Close/Last 220.40 229.65 211.50 221.10 223.95 208.65 222.00 221.55 263.30 250.55 272.75  

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Newsflash

Will the stock market continue its tradition of rallying into the new year?  Will there be another "Santa Claus rally?"

After a frightening decline after Brexit and another overnight in an initial response to Donald Trump's election upset, several US stock indices returned toward their all-time highs --- although some international markets are lagging.  Does that provide incredible opportunity?  But which way and when?

MRCI's  Historical Indices Report, complete with seasonal patterns not only for US futures on S&P500, S&P MidCap 400, NASDAQ 100, Russe ll 2000, and DJIA but also for futures on several major international indices including the FT-SE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, DAX, Euro STOXX 50, Swiss Market Index, SPI 200, and Hang Seng Index.