Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   43 43 43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 19 20 30 21 23 18 22 25 24 23
Exceeded High   17 13 19 21 17 13 11 19 23 22 17
Scenario Percentage   74% 68% 95% 70% 81% 57% 61% 86% 92% 92% 74%
Avg Max Increase   8.60% 9.55% 8.57% 7.04% 9.92% 15.24% 16.56% 11.50% 10.24% 12.30% 7.92%
Max Increase   22.59% 24.85% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 43.44% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 23 17 17 20 20 22 19 16 15 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.32% -2.22% -1.21% -2.77% -3.54% -2.63% -2.09% -4.30% -2.39% -3.26% -2.09%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.82% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 10 4 12 14 8 10 10 8 8 4
2017 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action   No   Yes No   Yes   No   Yes  
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   43 43 43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   20 24 23 12 23 22 25 23 20 21 22
Penetrated Low   16 19 13 11 16 18 18 16 12 11 12
Scenario Percentage   80% 79% 57% 92% 70% 82% 72% 70% 60% 52% 55%
Avg Max Decline   8.08% 8.86% 7.53% 10.56% 13.79% 9.88% 9.81% 10.97% 8.19% 7.80% 5.68%
Max Decline   17.75% 22.03% 18.21% 30.67% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 11.35% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 13 17 20 20 17 16 18 17 10 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.93% -1.25% -1.76% -1.21% -1.88% -2.03% -2.10% -2.88% -1.73% -2.72% -1.41%
Max Increase   -6.88% -8.53% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 5 11 11 7 8 4 10 10 6 3
2017 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes
Action     Yes     Yes   No   No   Yes
High 231.60 230.50 228.30 221.10 228.75 226.65 222.80 222.50 275.30 271.30 273.75 282.30
Low 213.65 210.05 206.60 204.05 213.45 207.95 207.50 209.70 220.90 244.80 247.25 261.20
Close/Last 220.40 229.65 211.50 221.10 223.95 208.65 222.00 221.55 263.30 250.55 272.75 270.40

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy