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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
41 |
41 |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
20 |
18 |
17 |
30 |
26 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
| Exceeded High |
13 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
22 |
16 |
15 |
21 |
24 |
25 |
19 |
| Scenario Percentage |
65% |
72% |
94% |
70% |
85% |
73% |
71% |
91% |
86% |
89% |
86% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.21% |
8.33% |
8.79% |
8.06% |
10.55% |
14.15% |
12.31% |
10.75% |
13.01% |
13.75% |
7.22% |
| Max Increase |
22.59% |
24.85% |
19.50% |
19.95% |
37.14% |
42.58% |
62.39% |
35.25% |
39.26% |
43.44% |
20.18% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.79% |
-1.98% |
-1.18% |
-1.90% |
-2.83% |
-2.78% |
-3.19% |
-3.73% |
-2.19% |
-2.98% |
-1.66% |
| Max Decline |
-14.06% |
-8.82% |
-2.77% |
-4.84% |
-9.82% |
-9.84% |
-14.81% |
-10.31% |
-8.88% |
-13.65% |
-8.10% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
| 2006 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
41 |
41 |
43 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
21 |
23 |
26 |
12 |
18 |
23 |
22 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
22 |
| Penetrated Low |
16 |
17 |
15 |
9 |
12 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
8 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
76% |
74% |
58% |
75% |
67% |
83% |
68% |
67% |
71% |
47% |
77% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.70% |
8.73% |
6.11% |
12.03% |
11.80% |
7.64% |
7.06% |
9.54% |
6.19% |
7.67% |
19.04% |
| Max Decline |
12.66% |
22.03% |
18.21% |
30.67% |
21.85% |
19.05% |
18.57% |
19.71% |
10.71% |
11.35% |
54.75% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
11 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.43% |
-1.65% |
-1.83% |
-1.30% |
-1.98% |
-2.08% |
-1.83% |
-2.80% |
-2.57% |
-2.83% |
-5.63% |
| Max Increase |
-6.88% |
-8.53% |
-8.27% |
-8.17% |
-8.95% |
-6.24% |
-5.97% |
-11.76% |
-7.42% |
-11.49% |
-30.86% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
7 |
6 |
12 |
13 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
11 |
6 |
8 |
| 2006 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
| High |
137.80 |
135.60 |
137.00 |
148.75 |
157.50 |
167.00 |
177.60 |
193.00 |
207.20 |
223.75 |
233.50 |
| Low |
129.00 |
124.15 |
127.20 |
129.00 |
148.00 |
152.00 |
166.20 |
172.10 |
193.70 |
201.20 |
213.20 |
| Close/Last |
135.20 |
127.70 |
131.80 |
148.45 |
154.45 |
165.25 |
174.65 |
192.60 |
204.20 |
222.85 |
218.55 |
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