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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Apr 17, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 38 38 40 41 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher 19 16 16 28 25 19 20 22 26 27 22
Exceeded High 12 11 15 18 21 13 14 20 22 23 17
Scenario Percentage 63% 69% 94% 64% 84% 68% 70% 91% 85% 85% 77%
Avg Max Increase 8.25% 9.22% 8.07% 8.07% 9.87% 14.14% 11.42% 10.39% 12.23% 13.41% 7.67%
Max Increase 22.59% 24.85% 17.77% 19.95% 37.14% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 43.44% 20.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 19 19 17 21 20 16 19 18 18 20
Avg Max Decline -2.86% -1.10% -1.11% -1.80% -3.02% -2.74% -2.92% -3.46% -2.00% -3.03% -1.59%
Max Decline -14.06% -3.87% -2.77% -4.84% -9.82% -8.98% -14.81% -10.31% -8.80% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 6 6 8 13 10 10 9 8 8 4
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes No   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
Copyright © 2001 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 38 38 40 41 43 44 44 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower 19 22 24 12 18 25 22 21 18 17 21
Penetrated Low 14 17 15 9 13 20 15 14 13 8 15
Scenario Percentage 74% 77% 63% 75% 72% 80% 68% 67% 72% 47% 71%
Avg Max Decline 6.77% 8.73% 6.11% 12.03% 11.30% 7.46% 7.06% 9.54% 6.01% 7.67% 18.12%
Max Decline 12.66% 22.03% 18.21% 30.67% 21.85% 19.05% 18.57% 19.71% 10.71% 11.35% 54.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 13 16 21 24 18 14 17 18 11 11
Avg Max Increase -1.45% -1.65% -1.83% -1.30% -1.87% -1.93% -1.83% -2.80% -2.37% -2.83% -5.30%
Max Increase -6.88% -8.53% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -5.97% -11.76% -7.42% -11.49% -30.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 6 12 13 9 7 5 11 10 6 7
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes
Action Yes     Yes   Yes     No   Not Yet
High 79.15 78.20 80.70 78.60 71.00 72.20 72.70 75.80 77.20 79.50 79.75
Low 73.75 73.10 75.90 69.70 68.20 67.00 66.75 71.90 69.40 70.05 73.85
Close/Last 75.50 78.20 78.60 69.80 70.30 67.45 72.40 75.75 70.25 79.45 77.50