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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
20 |
18 |
16 |
30 |
25 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
23 |
| Exceeded High |
13 |
13 |
15 |
20 |
21 |
15 |
14 |
21 |
23 |
24 |
19 |
| Scenario Percentage |
65% |
72% |
94% |
67% |
84% |
71% |
70% |
91% |
85% |
89% |
83% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.21% |
8.33% |
8.07% |
7.84% |
10.34% |
13.98% |
11.86% |
10.04% |
12.95% |
13.76% |
7.14% |
| Max Increase |
22.59% |
24.85% |
17.77% |
19.95% |
37.14% |
42.58% |
62.39% |
35.25% |
39.26% |
43.44% |
20.18% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.79% |
-1.98% |
-1.11% |
-1.98% |
-2.89% |
-3.00% |
-3.32% |
-3.74% |
-2.22% |
-2.93% |
-1.50% |
| Max Decline |
-14.06% |
-8.82% |
-2.77% |
-4.84% |
-9.82% |
-9.84% |
-14.81% |
-10.31% |
-8.88% |
-13.65% |
-8.10% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
8 |
6 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
20 |
22 |
26 |
12 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
21 |
18 |
18 |
21 |
| Penetrated Low |
15 |
17 |
15 |
9 |
13 |
20 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
8 |
15 |
| Scenario Percentage |
75% |
77% |
58% |
75% |
68% |
83% |
65% |
67% |
72% |
44% |
71% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.60% |
8.73% |
6.11% |
12.03% |
11.30% |
7.46% |
7.06% |
9.54% |
6.01% |
7.67% |
18.12% |
| Max Decline |
12.66% |
22.03% |
18.21% |
30.67% |
21.85% |
19.05% |
18.57% |
19.71% |
10.71% |
11.35% |
54.75% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
11 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.50% |
-1.65% |
-1.83% |
-1.30% |
-1.87% |
-1.93% |
-1.83% |
-2.80% |
-2.37% |
-2.83% |
-5.30% |
| Max Increase |
-6.88% |
-8.53% |
-8.27% |
-8.17% |
-8.95% |
-6.24% |
-5.97% |
-11.76% |
-7.42% |
-11.49% |
-30.86% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
7 |
6 |
12 |
13 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
11 |
10 |
6 |
7 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Not Yet |
| High |
80.80 |
81.60 |
78.70 |
74.20 |
71.75 |
69.10 |
66.35 |
73.70 |
72.85 |
74.00 |
75.40 |
| Low |
77.30 |
77.10 |
73.45 |
70.00 |
67.90 |
65.80 |
62.95 |
61.30 |
65.90 |
65.65 |
69.85 |
| Close/Last |
79.35 |
78.05 |
73.50 |
70.35 |
69.70 |
66.10 |
63.20 |
73.20 |
65.90 |
73.35 |
71.40 |
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