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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Sep 17, 2001 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
36 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
| Closed Higher |
18 |
15 |
15 |
28 |
24 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
26 |
25 |
22 |
| Exceeded High |
11 |
10 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
13 |
13 |
18 |
22 |
21 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
61% |
67% |
100% |
64% |
83% |
68% |
68% |
90% |
85% |
84% |
77% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.74% |
9.82% |
8.07% |
8.07% |
10.20% |
14.14% |
11.79% |
11.21% |
12.23% |
14.47% |
7.71% |
| Max Increase |
22.59% |
24.85% |
17.77% |
19.95% |
37.14% |
42.58% |
62.39% |
35.25% |
39.26% |
43.44% |
20.18% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.86% |
-1.36% |
-1.11% |
-1.80% |
-2.92% |
-2.74% |
-3.09% |
-2.80% |
-2.00% |
-2.76% |
-1.59% |
| Max Decline |
-14.06% |
-3.87% |
-2.77% |
-4.84% |
-9.82% |
-8.98% |
-14.81% |
-9.69% |
-8.80% |
-13.65% |
-8.10% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
Not Yet |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
36 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
| Closed Lower |
18 |
21 |
23 |
10 |
17 |
23 |
21 |
21 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
| Penetrated Low | 13 |
16 |
14 |
7 |
12 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
8 |
15 |
| Scenario Percentage |
72% |
76% |
61% |
70% |
71% |
78% |
67% |
67% |
75% |
47% |
79% |
| Avg Max Decline |
7.05% |
8.63% |
6.00% |
13.96% |
11.44% |
7.82% |
7.35% |
9.54% |
6.47% |
7.67% |
18.12% |
| Max Decline |
12.66% |
22.03% |
18.21% |
30.67% |
21.85% |
19.05% |
18.57% |
19.71% |
10.71% |
11.35% |
54.75% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
17 |
12 |
17 |
20 |
23 |
19 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
11 |
11 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.61% |
-1.70% |
-1.89% |
-0.89% |
-2.10% |
-2.02% |
-1.93% |
-2.80% |
-2.48% |
-2.83% |
-5.30% |
| Max Increase |
-6.88% |
-8.53% |
-8.27% |
-8.17% |
-8.95% |
-6.24% |
-5.97% |
-11.76% |
-7.42% |
-11.49% |
-30.86% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
6 |
13 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
11 |
6 |
7 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
No |
|
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| High |
82.80 |
85.60 |
83.80 |
87.60 |
89.65 |
93.90 |
92.05 |
86.45 |
90.10 |
86.40 |
85.10 |
| Low |
77.55 |
81.20 |
79.80 |
81.10 |
85.80 |
89.30 |
83.80 |
82.30 |
84.10 |
80.20 |
79.20 |
| Close/Last |
81.55 |
82.20 |
82.10 |
87.60 |
89.45 |
92.00 |
85.70 |
84.55 |
84.30 |
84.55 |
81.00 |
|
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