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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for December Gold(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Higher |
11 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
12 |
15 |
| Exceeded High |
7 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
7 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
9 |
10 |
| Scenario Percentage |
64% |
58% |
64% |
75% |
71% |
70% |
85% |
81% |
70% |
75% |
67% |
| Avg Max Increase |
5.20% |
3.67% |
6.42% |
6.37% |
6.89% |
6.87% |
13.40% |
12.39% |
8.28% |
6.71% |
5.26% |
| Max Increase |
9.79% |
7.18% |
14.88% |
13.41% |
26.11% |
14.27% |
43.18% |
36.06% |
21.45% |
13.89% |
21.69% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
9 |
12 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
11 |
16 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.21% |
-1.19% |
-1.10% |
-1.36% |
-1.47% |
-1.23% |
-1.84% |
-0.80% |
-1.33% |
-1.37% |
-0.65% |
| Max Decline |
-4.21% |
-2.57% |
-2.01% |
-5.22% |
-4.98% |
-4.24% |
-4.30% |
-3.76% |
-5.08% |
-3.23% |
-2.60% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
3 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
3 |
12 |
2 |
4 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Lower |
20 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
21 |
18 |
15 |
11 |
19 |
16 |
| Penetrated Low |
16 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
7 |
15 |
14 |
| Scenario Percentage |
80% |
89% |
90% |
84% |
82% |
52% |
72% |
67% |
64% |
79% |
88% |
| Avg Max Decline |
5.26% |
6.99% |
4.95% |
5.16% |
6.41% |
6.50% |
4.97% |
7.07% |
5.62% |
5.40% |
12.11% |
| Max Decline |
20.62% |
30.24% |
10.97% |
15.67% |
19.59% |
20.63% |
12.43% |
20.76% |
11.40% |
16.04% |
65.74% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
14 |
17 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
12 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-2.14% |
-1.57% |
-1.55% |
-2.64% |
-2.03% |
-1.20% |
-1.08% |
-0.44% |
-1.97% |
-2.12% |
-2.84% |
| Max Increase |
-12.26% |
-9.02% |
-9.59% |
-5.89% |
-4.96% |
-3.99% |
-5.34% |
-4.06% |
-5.87% |
-7.92% |
-14.39% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
13 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
No |
|
No |
|
|
Yes |
|
| High |
445.0 |
449.5 |
458.5 |
447.5 |
442.0 |
450.0 |
444.0 |
453.4 |
477.8 |
482.2 |
499.5 |
| Low |
423.3 |
421.5 |
434.5 |
432.0 |
421.0 |
421.7 |
424.2 |
433.5 |
440.0 |
462.0 |
456.1 |
| Close/Last |
433.9 |
448.2 |
439.6 |
444.2 |
424.3 |
443.0 |
435.8 |
438.1 |
472.3 |
466.9 |
494.6 |
|
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