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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for October Gold(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
| Tested Years |
30 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Higher |
14 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
| Exceeded High |
10 |
12 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
71% |
86% |
64% |
58% |
64% |
83% |
71% |
70% |
85% |
81% |
55% |
| Avg Max Increase |
14.00% |
11.38% |
4.84% |
3.60% |
6.21% |
6.35% |
6.76% |
6.74% |
13.33% |
12.37% |
5.24% |
| Max Increase |
102.11% |
56.59% |
9.84% |
7.11% |
14.43% |
13.45% |
25.62% |
14.34% |
43.72% |
37.73% |
11.65% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
12 |
15 |
9 |
13 |
19 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
13 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.59% |
-0.92% |
-0.73% |
-1.13% |
-0.90% |
-1.15% |
-1.44% |
-1.20% |
-1.81% |
-0.84% |
-0.83% |
| Max Decline |
-3.07% |
-6.00% |
-4.25% |
-2.34% |
-1.99% |
-5.01% |
-4.87% |
-4.25% |
-4.19% |
-3.77% |
-4.51% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
3 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
| Tested Years |
30 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Lower |
16 |
16 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
21 |
18 |
15 |
11 |
| Penetrated Low |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
75% |
88% |
80% |
89% |
85% |
84% |
82% |
57% |
78% |
67% |
64% |
| Avg Max Decline |
7.85% |
7.45% |
5.05% |
6.61% |
4.58% |
4.83% |
6.40% |
6.43% |
4.69% |
6.42% |
6.06% |
| Max Decline |
25.34% |
21.13% |
20.49% |
29.75% |
10.82% |
15.16% |
19.68% |
20.18% |
11.85% |
20.47% |
23.33% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
11 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.55% |
-0.01% |
-1.98% |
-1.56% |
-0.95% |
-2.58% |
-1.96% |
-1.30% |
-1.24% |
-0.26% |
-1.91% |
| Max Increase |
-5.39% |
-1.69% |
-12.02% |
-8.14% |
-3.63% |
-5.79% |
-4.72% |
-4.29% |
-5.53% |
-3.84% |
-8.57% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
13 |
7 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
14 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
No |
|
No |
|
|
| High |
465.2 |
466.9 |
439.1 |
445.4 |
455.0 |
444.4 |
436.5 |
447.5 |
440.0 |
450.0 |
474.0 |
| Low |
430.0 |
434.3 |
428.0 |
419.5 |
432.9 |
431.0 |
419.3 |
420.2 |
421.4 |
430.7 |
437.1 |
| Close/Last |
462.5 |
447.8 |
431.3 |
445.4 |
436.6 |
441.4 |
421.6 |
440.1 |
432.8 |
435.1 |
469.0 |
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