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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Jul 31, 2006 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Higher |
20 |
11 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
| Exceeded High |
11 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
7 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
55% |
73% |
71% |
86% |
64% |
67% |
64% |
67% |
71% |
70% |
92% |
| Avg Max Increase |
9.16% |
7.11% |
14.32% |
11.82% |
5.54% |
3.36% |
6.29% |
7.02% |
6.75% |
6.73% |
7.45% |
| Max Increase |
22.72% |
14.41% |
103.03% |
58.22% |
9.68% |
7.05% |
14.21% |
13.80% |
25.41% |
14.18% |
25.62% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
15 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
9 |
13 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.72% |
-1.28% |
-0.60% |
-1.20% |
-1.24% |
-1.13% |
-1.03% |
-1.22% |
-1.48% |
-1.24% |
-1.36% |
| Max Decline |
-4.16% |
-3.13% |
-2.89% |
-5.91% |
-4.60% |
-2.68% |
-1.97% |
-5.22% |
-4.89% |
-4.32% |
-3.56% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
| Closed Lower |
10 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
| Penetrated Low |
7 |
16 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
70% |
84% |
75% |
88% |
80% |
89% |
90% |
84% |
82% |
60% |
89% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.00% |
5.20% |
7.93% |
7.55% |
5.18% |
6.68% |
4.54% |
4.86% |
6.28% |
6.07% |
11.36% |
| Max Decline |
8.59% |
14.35% |
25.16% |
21.14% |
20.15% |
29.37% |
10.55% |
14.94% |
19.39% |
18.48% |
65.47% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
16 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.99% |
-2.00% |
-2.04% |
-0.24% |
-2.07% |
-1.65% |
-1.47% |
-2.58% |
-2.02% |
-1.18% |
-3.10% |
| Max Increase |
-2.05% |
-7.54% |
-5.97% |
-2.71% |
-12.81% |
-8.60% |
-7.05% |
-5.92% |
-4.86% |
-3.85% |
-9.52% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
13 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
6 |
8 |
-33 |
| 2005 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
No |
|
Yes |
| High |
427.3 |
436.7 |
462.7 |
466.4 |
439.0 |
444.0 |
452.8 |
441.7 |
437.0 |
444.2 |
438.2 |
| Low |
404.5 |
421.5 |
426.0 |
439.5 |
426.0 |
416.8 |
428.5 |
426.5 |
415.8 |
416.7 |
418.2 |
| Close/Last |
427.3 |
436.5 |
460.0 |
445.3 |
428.8 |
442.7 |
433.7 |
438.7 |
418.9 |
437.1 |
429.9 |
|
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