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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Aug 31, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Closed Higher 19 10 13 14 11 11 11 11 14 9 12
Exceeded High 10 7 9 12 7 7 7 7 10 6 10
Scenario Percentage 53% 70% 69% 86% 64% 64% 64% 64% 71% 67% 83%
Avg Max Increase 9.25% 7.15% 15.75% 11.82% 5.54% 3.52% 6.29% 7.84% 6.75% 7.32% 7.49%
Max Increase 22.72% 14.41% 103.03% 58.22% 9.68% 7.05% 14.21% 13.80% 25.41% 14.18% 25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 14 13 15 9 13 17 17 14 14 13
Avg Max Decline -0.65% -1.12% -0.64% -1.20% -1.24% -1.07% -1.03% -0.64% -1.48% -0.72% -1.24%
Max Decline -4.16% -3.13% -2.89% -5.91% -4.60% -2.68% -1.97% -1.42% -4.89% -2.65% -3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 2 5 7 3 2 7 5 6 12 3
2004 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes    
Action Yes   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes    
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Closed Lower 10 19 16 15 19 19 19 19 16 20 18
Penetrated Low 7 16 12 13 15 17 17 16 14 12 16
Scenario Percentage 70% 84% 75% 87% 79% 89% 89% 84% 88% 60% 89%
Avg Max Decline 4.00% 5.20% 7.93% 7.64% 5.34% 6.68% 4.56% 4.86% 6.28% 6.07% 10.82%
Max Decline 8.59% 14.35% 25.16% 21.14% 20.15% 29.37% 10.55% 14.94% 19.39% 18.48% 65.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 15 18 20 14 14 18 19 14 11 17
Avg Max Increase -0.99% -2.00% -2.04% -0.37% -2.22% -1.65% -1.45% -2.58% -2.02% -1.18% -3.06%
Max Increase -2.05% -7.54% -5.97% -2.71% -12.81% -8.60% -7.05% -5.92% -4.86% -3.85% -9.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 9 12 10 10 10 9 12 6 8 -36
2004 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action   No     Yes Yes   Yes   Not Yet Yes
High 395.6 392.3 401.6 420.2 431.3 419.5 429.5 433.0 396.9 405.6 409.6
Low 376.0 372.8 380.4 406.7 401.4 392.5 391.0 381.0 372.5 383.0 385.0
Close/Last 389.0 387.8 400.9 419.1 404.9 398.7 429.3 388.5 394.9 393.0 391.0