MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Oct 24, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Closed Higher 18 10 12 13 11 11 10 11 13 9 12
Exceeded High 9 7 8 11 7 7 6 7 9 6 10
Scenario Percentage 50% 70% 67% 85% 64% 64% 60% 64% 69% 67% 83%
Avg Max Increase 9.92% 7.15% 16.78% 12.63% 5.54% 3.52% 7.20% 7.84% 7.08% 7.32% 7.49%
Max Increase 22.72% 14.41% 103.03% 58.22% 9.68% 7.05% 14.21% 13.80% 25.41% 14.18% 25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase 14 14 14 16 9 13 20 17 14 14 13
Avg Max Decline -0.26% -1.12% -0.90% -1.40% -1.24% -1.07% -1.13% -0.64% -1.30% -0.72% -1.24%
Max Decline -2.70% -3.13% -2.89% -5.91% -4.60% -2.68% -1.97% -1.42% -4.89% -2.65% -3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 2 5 8 3 2 8 5 5 12 3
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes
Action No     Yes Yes     Yes No   Not Yet
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Closed Lower 10 18 16 15 18 18 19 18 16 19 17
Penetrated Low 7 16 12 13 14 16 17 15 14 12 15
Scenario Percentage 70% 89% 75% 87% 78% 89% 89% 83% 88% 63% 88%
Avg Max Decline 4.00% 5.20% 7.93% 7.64% 5.48% 6.82% 4.56% 4.91% 6.28% 6.07% 10.05%
Max Decline 8.59% 14.35% 25.16% 21.14% 20.15% 29.37% 10.55% 14.94% 19.39% 18.48% 65.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 15 18 20 15 14 18 20 14 11 18
Avg Max Increase -0.99% -2.00% -2.04% -0.37% -2.12% -1.22% -1.45% -2.64% -2.02% -1.18% -2.88%
Max Increase -2.05% -7.54% -5.97% -2.71% -12.81% -5.28% -7.05% -5.92% -4.86% -3.85% -9.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase 13 9 12 10 9 8 9 13 6 8 -40
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes  
Action   No No     Yes Yes     Yes  
High 330.0 326.0 326.8 353.0 375.5 387.5 361.0 341.3 374.7 370.5 367.7
Low 317.3 314.0 319.8 320.4 347.0 344.8 327.0 320.5 339.5 343.3 340.8
Close/Last 327.8 320.9 319.8 350.2 370.6 351.8 337.6 340.2 365.6 346.3 354.0