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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Jul 14, 2005 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
29 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
| Closed Higher |
19 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
9 |
12 |
| Exceeded High |
10 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
6 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
53% |
70% |
69% |
86% |
64% |
64% |
64% |
64% |
71% |
67% |
92% |
| Avg Max Increase |
9.25% |
7.15% |
15.75% |
11.82% |
5.54% |
3.52% |
6.29% |
7.84% |
6.75% |
7.32% |
7.35% |
| Max Increase |
22.72% |
14.41% |
103.03% |
58.22% |
9.68% |
7.05% |
14.21% |
13.80% |
25.41% |
14.18% |
25.62% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
14 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
13 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.65% |
-1.12% |
-0.64% |
-1.20% |
-1.24% |
-1.07% |
-1.03% |
-0.64% |
-1.48% |
-0.72% |
-1.36% |
| Max Decline |
-4.16% |
-3.13% |
-2.89% |
-5.91% |
-4.60% |
-2.68% |
-1.97% |
-1.42% |
-4.89% |
-2.65% |
-3.56% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
No |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
29 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
| Closed Lower |
10 |
19 |
16 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
| Penetrated Low |
7 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
70% |
84% |
75% |
87% |
79% |
89% |
89% |
84% |
88% |
60% |
89% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.00% |
5.20% |
7.93% |
7.64% |
5.34% |
6.68% |
4.56% |
4.86% |
6.28% |
6.07% |
10.91% |
| Max Decline |
8.59% |
14.35% |
25.16% |
21.14% |
20.15% |
29.37% |
10.55% |
14.94% |
19.39% |
18.48% |
65.47% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
17 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.99% |
-2.00% |
-2.04% |
-0.37% |
-2.22% |
-1.65% |
-1.45% |
-2.58% |
-2.02% |
-1.18% |
-3.06% |
| Max Increase |
-2.05% |
-7.54% |
-5.97% |
-2.71% |
-12.81% |
-8.60% |
-7.05% |
-5.92% |
-4.86% |
-3.85% |
-9.52% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
13 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
12 |
6 |
8 |
-36 |
| 2002 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
| High |
297.0 |
295.3 |
283.5 |
282.4 |
290.7 |
310.0 |
305.6 |
313.4 |
328.9 |
330.7 |
326.0 |
| Low |
277.2 |
278.3 |
275.1 |
274.4 |
279.5 |
284.8 |
290.5 |
299.3 |
307.5 |
310.5 |
300.5 |
| Close/Last |
295.8 |
282.4 |
276.4 |
280.7 |
284.2 |
298.5 |
304.6 |
310.2 |
327.5 |
313.9 |
303.2 |
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