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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Sep 17, 2001 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| Closed Higher |
16 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
11 |
| Exceeded High |
9 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
10 |
| Scenario Percentage |
56% |
70% |
67% |
82% |
56% |
60% |
56% |
56% |
73% |
67% |
91% |
| Avg Max Increase |
9.92% |
7.15% |
16.78% |
13.10% |
5.02% |
3.27% |
7.04% |
7.63% |
7.85% |
7.49% |
7.60% |
| Max Increase |
22.72% |
14.41% |
103.03% |
58.22% |
9.68% |
7.05% |
14.21% |
13.80% |
25.41% |
14.18% |
25.62% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
14 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
10 |
11 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.26% |
-1.12% |
-0.90% |
-1.57% |
-1.85% |
-0.81% |
-1.01% |
-0.69% |
-1.41% |
-0.72% |
-1.24% |
| Max Decline |
-2.70% |
-3.13% |
-2.89% |
-5.91% |
-4.60% |
-1.69% |
-1.97% |
-1.42% |
-4.89% |
-2.65% |
-3.56% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
12 |
3 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
No |
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| Closed Lower |
10 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
| Penetrated Low | 7 |
15 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
14 |
| Scenario Percentage |
70% |
94% |
79% |
87% |
78% |
88% |
89% |
83% |
88% |
59% |
88% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.00% |
5.36% |
8.59% |
7.64% |
5.48% |
6.68% |
4.53% |
4.91% |
6.28% |
6.61% |
10.48% |
| Max Decline |
8.59% |
14.35% |
25.16% |
21.14% |
20.15% |
29.37% |
10.55% |
14.94% |
19.39% |
18.48% |
65.47% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
20 |
14 |
11 |
18 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.99% |
-2.10% |
-2.12% |
-0.37% |
-2.12% |
-1.13% |
-1.54% |
-2.64% |
-2.02% |
-0.81% |
-2.74% |
| Max Increase |
-2.05% |
-7.54% |
-5.97% |
-2.71% |
-12.81% |
-5.28% |
-7.05% |
-5.92% |
-4.86% |
-2.58% |
-9.52% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
13 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
13 |
6 |
8 |
-44 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Not Yet |
| High |
291.8 |
291.0 |
282.0 |
285.0 |
278.0 |
274.6 |
276.2 |
269.5 |
295.0 |
279.8 |
271.5 |
| Low |
282.7 |
275.7 |
275.0 |
278.0 |
269.0 |
259.5 |
260.0 |
257.3 |
265.2 |
266.0 |
264.1 |
| Close/Last |
287.2 |
276.3 |
280.8 |
280.7 |
271.9 |
271.4 |
260.7 |
265.4 |
266.9 |
271.3 |
266.2 |
|
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