MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Mar 31, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	30	30	30	30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	14	15	20	11	13	15	11	13	11	12	13
Exceeded High	10	12	12	9	11	12	6	8	6	9	9
Scenario Percentage	71%	80%	60%	82%	85%	80%	55%	62%	55%	75%	69%
Avg Max Increase	14.16%	12.33%	9.15%	7.44%	13.42%	12.02%	5.58%	3.84%	7.02%	6.92%	4.03%
Max Increase	39.45%	36.10%	22.87%	14.68%	103.28%	59.53%	9.60%	7.05%	13.91%	14.45%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	20	15	15	13	15	9	14	17	17	13
Avg Max Decline	-1.76%	-0.63%	-1.12%	-2.02%	-1.36%	-1.49%	-1.52%	-1.26%	-1.15%	-1.14%	-1.01%
Max Decline	-4.27%	-3.52%	-4.84%	-6.23%	-5.47%	-6.10%	-4.50%	-2.79%	-1.99%	-5.25%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	5	8	3	7	5	4	2	6	8	4
2006 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	30	30	30	30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	16	15	10	19	16	15	20	18	20	19	18
Penetrated Low	13	11	6	16	13	13	16	16	18	15	14
Scenario Percentage	81%	73%	60%	84%	81%	87%	80%	89%	90%	79%	78%
Avg Max Decline	4.47%	6.68%	4.63%	5.49%	7.45%	7.73%	5.28%	7.01%	4.53%	4.14%	8.81%
Max Decline	13.69%	21.71%	8.45%	14.61%	25.07%	21.53%	20.33%	29.03%	10.42%	10.02%	38.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	22	17	13	16	18	14	16	20	17	14
Avg Max Increase	-0.89%	-0.65%	-1.09%	-2.23%	-1.90%	-0.55%	-2.21%	-1.87%	-1.47%	-2.63%	-1.88%
Max Increase	-4.49%	-5.67%	-2.06%	-7.69%	-5.81%	-2.53%	-12.92%	-8.85%	-7.23%	-6.06%	-6.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase	7	13	15	10	12	7	9	9	11	12	6
2006 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes				Yes
Action	No			Yes				Yes
High	448.5	464.0	487.0	493.3	513.0	550.5	582.5	585.0	592.1
Low	422.2	445.0	450.0	473.0	468.0	501.0	532.0	543.5	540.2
Close/Last	445.4	447.5	483.2	478.4	507.3	527.7	580.5	569.1	586.7