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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Jul 01, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30
Closed Higher 14 14 19 10 12 15 11 12 11 11 13
Exceeded High 10 11 11 8 10 12 6 7 6 8 9
Scenario Percentage 71% 79% 58% 80% 83% 80% 55% 58% 55% 73% 69%
Avg Max Increase 14.16% 13.03% 9.21% 7.56% 14.64% 12.02% 5.58% 4.05% 7.02% 7.60% 4.03%
Max Increase 39.45% 36.10% 22.87% 14.68% 103.28% 59.53% 9.60% 7.05% 13.91% 14.45% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 20 14 16 14 15 9 15 17 16 13
Avg Max Decline -1.76% -0.36% -1.01% -1.97% -1.40% -1.49% -1.52% -1.19% -1.15% -0.62% -1.01%
Max Decline -4.27% -1.56% -4.84% -6.23% -5.47% -6.10% -4.50% -2.79% -1.99% -1.24% -2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 4 8 3 8 5 4 2 6 5 4
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30
Closed Lower 15 15 10 19 16 14 19 18 19 19 17
Penetrated Low 13 11 6 16 13 12 15 16 17 15 13
Scenario Percentage 87% 73% 60% 84% 81% 86% 79% 89% 89% 79% 76%
Avg Max Decline 4.47% 6.68% 4.63% 5.49% 7.45% 7.83% 5.44% 7.01% 4.55% 4.14% 8.20%
Max Decline 13.69% 21.71% 8.45% 14.61% 25.07% 21.53% 20.33% 29.03% 10.42% 10.02% 38.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline 16 22 17 13 16 18 15 16 19 17 13
Avg Max Increase -0.89% -0.65% -1.09% -2.23% -1.90% -0.63% -2.36% -1.87% -1.45% -2.63% -1.54%
Max Increase -4.49% -5.67% -2.06% -7.69% -5.81% -2.53% -12.92% -8.85% -7.23% -6.06% -4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase 7 13 15 10 12 7 9 9 10 12 5
2004 Contract Condition       Yes     Yes Yes   Yes  
Action       No     Yes Yes   Yes  
High 371.9 381.5 395.7 395.0 403.0 420.8 431.0 419.0 428.5 433.0 395.9
Low 344.0 350.0 373.3 369.5 378.0 399.8 399.0 392.0 389.0 380.6 372.0
Close/Last 358.1 379.2 388.3 387.1 399.9 418.2 403.9 397.8 428.3 387.5 394.0