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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of May 29, 2003
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28
Closed Higher 13 12 17 10 11 13 10 12 10 10 11
Exceeded High 9 9 10 8 9 10 5 7 5 7 8
Scenario Percentage 69% 75% 59% 80% 82% 77% 50% 58% 50% 70% 73%
Avg Max Increase 14.56% 14.91% 9.75% 7.56% 15.40% 13.08% 5.83% 4.05% 8.20% 7.25% 4.22%
Max Increase 39.45% 36.10% 22.87% 14.68% 103.28% 59.53% 9.60% 7.05% 13.91% 14.45% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 19 12 16 15 17 10 15 20 16 11
Avg Max Decline -1.71% -0.30% -0.63% -1.97% -1.55% -1.70% -1.85% -1.19% -1.27% -0.68% -0.79%
Max Decline -4.27% -1.42% -3.23% -6.23% -5.47% -6.10% -4.50% -2.79% -1.99% -1.24% -2.43%
Avg Days to Max Decline 7 5 7 3 8 6 4 2 7 6 3
2003 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action   Yes No     Yes Yes     Yes  
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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28
Closed Lower 14 15 10 17 15 14 18 16 18 18 17
Penetrated Low 12 11 6 16 12 12 14 14 16 14 13
Scenario Percentage 86% 73% 60% 94% 80% 86% 78% 88% 89% 78% 76%
Avg Max Decline 4.71% 6.68% 4.63% 5.49% 8.04% 7.83% 5.56% 7.07% 4.52% 4.15% 8.20%
Max Decline 13.69% 21.71% 8.45% 14.61% 25.07% 21.53% 20.33% 29.03% 10.42% 10.02% 38.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 22 17 13 17 18 15 15 20 17 13
Avg Max Increase -0.94% -0.65% -1.09% -2.23% -2.03% -0.63% -2.26% -1.34% -1.54% -2.70% -1.54%
Max Increase -4.49% -5.67% -2.06% -7.69% -5.81% -2.53% -12.92% -5.45% -7.23% -6.06% -4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 13 15 10 13 7 9 7 10 13 5
2003 Contract Condition Yes     Yes Yes     Yes Yes    
Action Yes     No Yes     Yes Yes    
High 329.0 320.0 331.0 326.8 327.2 353.2 375.0 386.0 359.5 340.4 373.5
Low 305.5 302.5 316.5 312.5 318.9 318.1 345.0 343.5 326.3 320.1 338.8
Close/Last 307.3 315.8 327.3 320.4 319.2 349.8 370.0 351.1 336.9 339.4 369.6