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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Sep 17, 2001 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| Closed Higher |
13 |
11 |
16 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
| Exceeded High |
9 |
8 |
10 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
69% |
73% |
63% |
80% |
82% |
75% |
44% |
55% |
44% |
67% |
70% |
| Avg Max Increase |
14.56% |
15.77% |
9.75% |
7.56% |
15.40% |
13.43% |
5.14% |
3.90% |
8.25% |
7.36% |
4.68% |
| Max Increase |
39.45% |
36.10% |
22.87% |
14.68% |
103.28% |
59.53% |
9.60% |
7.05% |
13.91% |
14.45% |
15.74% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
19 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
11 |
13 |
18 |
18 |
12 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.71% |
-0.18% |
-0.63% |
-1.97% |
-1.55% |
-1.82% |
-2.32% |
-0.93% |
-1.13% |
-0.65% |
-0.84% |
| Max Decline |
-4.27% |
-1.42% |
-3.23% |
-6.23% |
-5.47% |
-6.10% |
-4.50% |
-1.64% |
-1.99% |
-1.24% |
-2.43% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
7 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| Closed Lower |
13 |
15 |
10 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
| Penetrated Low | 12 |
11 |
6 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
| Scenario Percentage |
92% |
73% |
60% |
94% |
79% |
86% |
78% |
88% |
89% |
78% |
76% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.71% |
6.68% |
4.63% |
5.63% |
8.66% |
7.83% |
5.56% |
7.07% |
4.52% |
4.15% |
8.20% |
| Max Decline |
13.69% |
21.71% |
8.45% |
14.61% |
25.07% |
21.53% |
20.33% |
29.03% |
10.42% |
10.02% |
38.05% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
17 |
22 |
17 |
13 |
18 |
18 |
15 |
15 |
20 |
17 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.94% |
-0.65% |
-1.09% |
-2.34% |
-2.11% |
-0.63% |
-2.26% |
-1.34% |
-1.54% |
-2.70% |
-1.54% |
| Max Increase |
-4.49% |
-5.67% |
-2.06% |
-7.69% |
-5.81% |
-2.53% |
-12.92% |
-5.45% |
-7.23% |
-6.06% |
-4.87% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
14 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
5 |
| 2001 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| High |
300.2 |
292.2 |
290.2 |
286.6 |
279.2 |
282.8 |
278.5 |
273.2 |
274.8 |
267.5 |
293.5 |
| Low |
291.0 |
283.3 |
279.5 |
273.1 |
272.8 |
275.7 |
266.5 |
258.2 |
258.5 |
255.8 |
264.1 |
| Close/Last |
291.0 |
289.7 |
284.7 |
274.0 |
278.5 |
278.6 |
270.1 |
269.8 |
259.2 |
264.4 |
265.3 |
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