|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 07, 2009 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
| Closed Higher |
15 |
9 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
13 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
12 |
| Exceeded High |
10 |
6 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
10 |
14 |
14 |
9 |
10 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
67% |
67% |
75% |
82% |
64% |
77% |
88% |
88% |
64% |
67% |
58% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.66% |
5.65% |
13.01% |
12.63% |
9.21% |
7.38% |
11.97% |
12.17% |
5.80% |
4.00% |
5.84% |
| Max Increase |
26.63% |
13.22% |
41.74% |
36.12% |
22.65% |
14.71% |
102.90% |
60.45% |
11.41% |
6.98% |
14.47% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
14 |
16 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
20 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.12% |
-0.88% |
-1.86% |
-0.59% |
-1.53% |
-1.53% |
-2.01% |
-1.30% |
-2.43% |
-1.20% |
-0.84% |
| Max Decline |
-4.91% |
-4.21% |
-4.29% |
-3.49% |
-4.67% |
-6.01% |
-7.89% |
-6.14% |
-7.12% |
-2.83% |
-1.85% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
14 |
7 |
3 |
10 |
3 |
10 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
| Closed Lower |
18 |
24 |
17 |
16 |
11 |
20 |
17 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
22 |
| Penetrated Low |
16 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
7 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
| Scenario Percentage |
89% |
54% |
76% |
69% |
64% |
80% |
76% |
88% |
80% |
89% |
86% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.42% |
5.94% |
4.28% |
7.33% |
5.05% |
5.57% |
7.27% |
7.27% |
5.27% |
6.58% |
14.31% |
| Max Decline |
19.63% |
21.13% |
13.17% |
20.91% |
8.36% |
14.95% |
24.92% |
21.29% |
20.24% |
30.36% |
64.31% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
16 |
15 |
21 |
18 |
12 |
15 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.61% |
-1.44% |
-0.81% |
-0.59% |
-1.09% |
-2.18% |
-1.58% |
-0.51% |
-2.18% |
-1.45% |
-1.92% |
| Max Increase |
-4.67% |
-5.30% |
-5.00% |
-5.35% |
-2.41% |
-7.69% |
-5.91% |
-2.10% |
-12.86% |
-5.45% |
-12.06% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
6 |
9 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
-28 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
| High |
721.9 |
702.2 |
711.0 |
698.4 |
763.2 |
810.6 |
861.0 |
853.2 |
942.2 |
978.5 |
1033.9 |
| Low |
683.6 |
668.7 |
674.9 |
666.4 |
692.0 |
738.5 |
789.0 |
789.7 |
844.6 |
888.4 |
904.7 |
| Close/Last |
691.5 |
675.2 |
691.3 |
693.5 |
762.1 |
807.9 |
795.2 |
844.5 |
928.0 |
975.0 |
916.2 |
|
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